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icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Jul 30

Jul 31

Aug 1

Jul 30

Jul 31

Aug 1

25°C 35%

24°C 33%

26°C 29%

27°C 5%

Polymarket
NEW

25°C 35%

24°C 33%

26°C 29%

27°C 5%

Polymarket
NEW

21°C or below

$42 Vol.

2%

22°C

$32 Vol.

1%

23°C

$10 Vol.

5%

24°C

$41 Vol.

33%

25°C

$16 Vol.

35%

26°C

$0 Vol.

29%

27°C

$0 Vol.

5%

28°C

$0 Vol.

5%

29°C

$25 Vol.

3%

30°C

$22 Vol.

1%

31°C or higher

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current atmospheric patterns over the South China Sea, including monsoon flow and potential tropical disturbance activity, are driving tight clustering in trader sentiment around 24–26°C for Hong Kong’s August 1 minimum. Nighttime radiative cooling is modulated by cloud cover, humidity levels, and wind mixing, while the urban heat island effect from dense infrastructure often elevates urban lows several degrees above rural baselines. Subtle differences in forecast model runs for sea-breeze timing, shower development, and air-mass origin create the narrow spreads between these outcomes, with clearer skies favoring cooler readings near 24°C and persistent cloud or moisture trapping heat closer to 26°C. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and updated model consensus will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$188
End Date
Aug 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current atmospheric patterns over the South China Sea, including monsoon flow and potential tropical disturbance activity, are driving tight clustering in trader sentiment around 24–26°C for Hong Kong’s August 1 minimum. Nighttime radiative cooling is modulated by cloud cover, humidity levels, and wind mixing, while the urban heat island effect from dense infrastructure often elevates urban lows several degrees above rural baselines. Subtle differences in forecast model runs for sea-breeze timing, shower development, and air-mass origin create the narrow spreads between these outcomes, with clearer skies favoring cooler readings near 24°C and persistent cloud or moisture trapping heat closer to 26°C. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and updated model consensus will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$188
End Date
Aug 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25°C" at 35%, followed by "24°C" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?" is "25°C" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "24°C" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.