Near-term forecast models from major agencies indicate Istanbul's highest temperature on August 1 will likely reach 27–28°C, aligning closely with seasonal climatology where August serves as the warmest month with average daily highs of 28–29°C. Current guidance shows stable high-pressure patterns supporting near-normal conditions without heat-wave signals or significant cooling from maritime influences. Trader consensus, reflected in the market's emphasis on these outcomes, incorporates model consensus and historical analogs showing rare excursions above 30°C or below 25°C on this date. Key upcoming inputs include the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus official Turkish meteorological updates, which could refine probabilities as the 48-hour window narrows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 1?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 1?
27°C 39%
26°C 26%
28°C 23%
25°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
5%
24°C
3%
25°C
11%
26°C
26%
27°C
39%
28°C
23%
29°C
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
4%
27°C 39%
26°C 26%
28°C 23%
25°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$27 Vol.
5%
24°C
$49 Vol.
3%
25°C
$0 Vol.
11%
26°C
$10 Vol.
26%
27°C
$36 Vol.
39%
28°C
$10 Vol.
23%
29°C
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$10 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$10 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Near-term forecast models from major agencies indicate Istanbul's highest temperature on August 1 will likely reach 27–28°C, aligning closely with seasonal climatology where August serves as the warmest month with average daily highs of 28–29°C. Current guidance shows stable high-pressure patterns supporting near-normal conditions without heat-wave signals or significant cooling from maritime influences. Trader consensus, reflected in the market's emphasis on these outcomes, incorporates model consensus and historical analogs showing rare excursions above 30°C or below 25°C on this date. Key upcoming inputs include the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus official Turkish meteorological updates, which could refine probabilities as the 48-hour window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$152End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Near-term forecast models from major agencies indicate Istanbul's highest temperature on August 1 will likely reach 27–28°C, aligning closely with seasonal climatology where August serves as the warmest month with average daily highs of 28–29°C. Current guidance shows stable high-pressure patterns supporting near-normal conditions without heat-wave signals or significant cooling from maritime influences. Trader consensus, reflected in the market's emphasis on these outcomes, incorporates model consensus and historical analogs showing rare excursions above 30°C or below 25°C on this date. Key upcoming inputs include the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus official Turkish meteorological updates, which could refine probabilities as the 48-hour window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$152End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Near-term forecast models from major agencies indicate Istanbul's highest temperature on August 1 will likely reach 27–28°C, aligning closely with seasonal climatology where August serves as the warmest month with average daily highs of 28–29°C. Current guidance shows stable high-pressure patterns supporting near-normal conditions without heat-wave signals or significant cooling from maritime influences. Trader consensus, reflected in the market's emphasis on these outcomes, incorporates model consensus and historical analogs showing rare excursions above 30°C or below 25°C on this date. Key upcoming inputs include the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus official Turkish meteorological updates, which could refine probabilities as the 48-hour window narrows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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