Recent late-July heat and humidity across northern China, combined with typical early-August climatology showing Beijing highs averaging near 31–32°C, have anchored trader expectations around 33–34°C for August 1. Persistent high pressure and southerly flow favor temperatures in this range, while urban heat-island effects and elevated dew points could push readings slightly higher unless scattered thunderstorms develop and provide brief cooling. Model consensus from sources like AccuWeather places daily maxima between 28–36°C for early August, with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–34°C reflecting both historical precedent and the modest forecast spread at this lead time. Updated numerical guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 1?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 1?
34°C 33%
33°C 28%
35°C 18%
32°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
2%
31°C
5%
32°C
16%
33°C
28%
34°C
33%
35°C
18%
36°C
6%
37°C
2%
38°C or higher
4%
34°C 33%
33°C 28%
35°C 18%
32°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
28°C or below
$42 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$383 Vol.
2%
30°C
$190 Vol.
2%
31°C
$322 Vol.
5%
32°C
$2 Vol.
16%
33°C
$16 Vol.
28%
34°C
$344 Vol.
33%
35°C
$73 Vol.
18%
36°C
$1,238 Vol.
6%
37°C
$18 Vol.
2%
38°C or higher
$10 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent late-July heat and humidity across northern China, combined with typical early-August climatology showing Beijing highs averaging near 31–32°C, have anchored trader expectations around 33–34°C for August 1. Persistent high pressure and southerly flow favor temperatures in this range, while urban heat-island effects and elevated dew points could push readings slightly higher unless scattered thunderstorms develop and provide brief cooling. Model consensus from sources like AccuWeather places daily maxima between 28–36°C for early August, with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–34°C reflecting both historical precedent and the modest forecast spread at this lead time. Updated numerical guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,638End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent late-July heat and humidity across northern China, combined with typical early-August climatology showing Beijing highs averaging near 31–32°C, have anchored trader expectations around 33–34°C for August 1. Persistent high pressure and southerly flow favor temperatures in this range, while urban heat-island effects and elevated dew points could push readings slightly higher unless scattered thunderstorms develop and provide brief cooling. Model consensus from sources like AccuWeather places daily maxima between 28–36°C for early August, with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–34°C reflecting both historical precedent and the modest forecast spread at this lead time. Updated numerical guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,638End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent late-July heat and humidity across northern China, combined with typical early-August climatology showing Beijing highs averaging near 31–32°C, have anchored trader expectations around 33–34°C for August 1. Persistent high pressure and southerly flow favor temperatures in this range, while urban heat-island effects and elevated dew points could push readings slightly higher unless scattered thunderstorms develop and provide brief cooling. Model consensus from sources like AccuWeather places daily maxima between 28–36°C for early August, with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–34°C reflecting both historical precedent and the modest forecast spread at this lead time. Updated numerical guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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