Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate cloudy conditions over Tokyo on August 3 with overnight lows centered near 24°C, driving the market's 62% implied probability for that outcome. Persistent summer humidity and the urban heat island effect limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while limited cloud cover and light winds support minima in the 23–25°C range consistent with climatological August averages of 24–25°C. Updated model runs show minimal spread, keeping higher or lower thresholds at single-digit odds absent an unexpected frontal passage or clearer skies that could alter heat retention. Traders are weighting the latest official guidance ahead of any final pre-event adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 3?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 3?
24°C 53%
23°C 22%
25°C 21%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
6%
22°C
13%
23°C
22%
24°C
53%
25°C
21%
26°C
8%
27°C
3%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
1%
24°C 53%
23°C 22%
25°C 21%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
19°C or below
$37 Vol.
1%
20°C
$37 Vol.
1%
21°C
$5 Vol.
6%
22°C
$5 Vol.
13%
23°C
$110 Vol.
22%
24°C
$15 Vol.
53%
25°C
$36 Vol.
21%
26°C
$6 Vol.
8%
27°C
$38 Vol.
3%
28°C
$27 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate cloudy conditions over Tokyo on August 3 with overnight lows centered near 24°C, driving the market's 62% implied probability for that outcome. Persistent summer humidity and the urban heat island effect limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while limited cloud cover and light winds support minima in the 23–25°C range consistent with climatological August averages of 24–25°C. Updated model runs show minimal spread, keeping higher or lower thresholds at single-digit odds absent an unexpected frontal passage or clearer skies that could alter heat retention. Traders are weighting the latest official guidance ahead of any final pre-event adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$319End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate cloudy conditions over Tokyo on August 3 with overnight lows centered near 24°C, driving the market's 62% implied probability for that outcome. Persistent summer humidity and the urban heat island effect limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while limited cloud cover and light winds support minima in the 23–25°C range consistent with climatological August averages of 24–25°C. Updated model runs show minimal spread, keeping higher or lower thresholds at single-digit odds absent an unexpected frontal passage or clearer skies that could alter heat retention. Traders are weighting the latest official guidance ahead of any final pre-event adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$319End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate cloudy conditions over Tokyo on August 3 with overnight lows centered near 24°C, driving the market's 62% implied probability for that outcome. Persistent summer humidity and the urban heat island effect limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while limited cloud cover and light winds support minima in the 23–25°C range consistent with climatological August averages of 24–25°C. Updated model runs show minimal spread, keeping higher or lower thresholds at single-digit odds absent an unexpected frontal passage or clearer skies that could alter heat retention. Traders are weighting the latest official guidance ahead of any final pre-event adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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