Recent JMA seasonal outlooks for summer 2026 highlight above-normal temperatures across Japan driven by a strengthened Pacific High, sustaining the typical August pattern of muggy nights with minima near 24–26°C in Tokyo. Historical climatology shows average overnight lows of 24–25°C, and short-range guidance indicates no significant frontal passages or radiative cooling episodes expected to push the August 2 minimum below 24°C or above 26°C. These factors concentrate trader consensus on 25°C as the modal outcome, with modest probability mass on adjacent values reflecting minor model spread in humidity and cloud cover that could nudge the daily minimum by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?
25°C 59%
26°C 23%
24°C 19%
27°C 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
19%
25°C
59%
26°C
23%
27°C
5%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 59%
26°C 23%
24°C 19%
27°C 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
20°C or below
$112 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$202 Vol.
1%
22°C
$117 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$217 Vol.
1%
24°C
$286 Vol.
19%
25°C
$848 Vol.
59%
26°C
$887 Vol.
23%
27°C
$226 Vol.
5%
28°C
$157 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$197 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$162 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA seasonal outlooks for summer 2026 highlight above-normal temperatures across Japan driven by a strengthened Pacific High, sustaining the typical August pattern of muggy nights with minima near 24–26°C in Tokyo. Historical climatology shows average overnight lows of 24–25°C, and short-range guidance indicates no significant frontal passages or radiative cooling episodes expected to push the August 2 minimum below 24°C or above 26°C. These factors concentrate trader consensus on 25°C as the modal outcome, with modest probability mass on adjacent values reflecting minor model spread in humidity and cloud cover that could nudge the daily minimum by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,411End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA seasonal outlooks for summer 2026 highlight above-normal temperatures across Japan driven by a strengthened Pacific High, sustaining the typical August pattern of muggy nights with minima near 24–26°C in Tokyo. Historical climatology shows average overnight lows of 24–25°C, and short-range guidance indicates no significant frontal passages or radiative cooling episodes expected to push the August 2 minimum below 24°C or above 26°C. These factors concentrate trader consensus on 25°C as the modal outcome, with modest probability mass on adjacent values reflecting minor model spread in humidity and cloud cover that could nudge the daily minimum by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,411End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA seasonal outlooks for summer 2026 highlight above-normal temperatures across Japan driven by a strengthened Pacific High, sustaining the typical August pattern of muggy nights with minima near 24–26°C in Tokyo. Historical climatology shows average overnight lows of 24–25°C, and short-range guidance indicates no significant frontal passages or radiative cooling episodes expected to push the August 2 minimum below 24°C or above 26°C. These factors concentrate trader consensus on 25°C as the modal outcome, with modest probability mass on adjacent values reflecting minor model spread in humidity and cloud cover that could nudge the daily minimum by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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