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icon for Highest temperature in Chicago on August 1?

Highest temperature in Chicago on August 1?

icon for Highest temperature in Chicago on August 1?

Highest temperature in Chicago on August 1?

Aug 1

Aug 2

Aug 1

Aug 2

72-73°F 66%

74-75°F 34%

76-77°F <1%

63°F or below <1%

Polymarket
NEW

$49,339 Vol.

72-73°F 66%

74-75°F 34%

76-77°F <1%

63°F or below <1%

Polymarket
NEW

$49,339 Vol.

63°F or below

$3,015 Vol.

<1%

64-65°F

$3,688 Vol.

<1%

66-67°F

$4,527 Vol.

<1%

68-69°F

$9,871 Vol.

<1%

70-71°F

$11,395 Vol.

<1%

72-73°F

$6,224 Vol.

66%

74-75°F

$5,795 Vol.

34%

76-77°F

$3,369 Vol.

1%

78-79°F

$498 Vol.

<1%

80-81°F

$458 Vol.

<1%

82°F or higher

$498 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate a daily high in Chicago on August 1 likely settling in the low to mid-70s, driven by a moderating lake breeze from Lake Michigan and a passing weak frontal system that limits daytime heating. These conditions align with the market's strong consensus on 72-73°F (66% implied probability) and 74-75°F (33.5%), reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited potential for stronger warming. Historical August averages near 82°F provide context for the below-normal outlook, while model consensus and lake-effect moderation reduce odds of exceeding 76°F to under 1%. Updated runs expected later today could refine the precise maximum before evening cooling sets in.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$49,339
End Date
Aug 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate a daily high in Chicago on August 1 likely settling in the low to mid-70s, driven by a moderating lake breeze from Lake Michigan and a passing weak frontal system that limits daytime heating. These conditions align with the market's strong consensus on 72-73°F (66% implied probability) and 74-75°F (33.5%), reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited potential for stronger warming. Historical August averages near 82°F provide context for the below-normal outlook, while model consensus and lake-effect moderation reduce odds of exceeding 76°F to under 1%. Updated runs expected later today could refine the precise maximum before evening cooling sets in.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$49,339
End Date
Aug 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Chicago on August 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "72-73°F" at 66%, followed by "74-75°F" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Chicago on August 1?" has generated $49.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Chicago on August 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Chicago on August 1?" is "72-73°F" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "74-75°F" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Chicago on August 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.