Current forecasts from meteorological sources, including Met Office and regional models, indicate a daily maximum near 13°C for Wellington on August 11, 2026, with some guidance settling at 11–12°C amid typical winter conditions. This aligns with the long-term August climatological average of roughly 12–13°C driven by prevailing westerly and southerly flows over the Cook Strait, which moderate temperatures and limit extreme deviations. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA project near-average air temperatures for the region through mid-August, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 12°C (60.5%) and 13°C (31.5%) as the most probable outcomes based on ensemble consensus. No significant warm or cold anomalies appear in recent model runs, keeping lower-probability tails (14°C or higher, or 11°C or below) subdued ahead of final observational data from Wellington Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 11?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11?
12°C 61%
13°C 32%
11°C 5%
14°C 3%
NEW
$28,470 Vol.
NEW
$28,470 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
61%
13°C
32%
14°C
3%
15°C
2%
16°C or higher
1%
12°C 61%
13°C 32%
11°C 5%
14°C 3%
NEW
$28,470 Vol.
NEW
$28,470 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
6°C or below
$503 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$503 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$481 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$796 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,615 Vol.
2%
11°C
$2,656 Vol.
5%
12°C
$7,136 Vol.
61%
13°C
$4,074 Vol.
32%
14°C
$4,415 Vol.
3%
15°C
$3,095 Vol.
2%
16°C or higher
$3,196 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological sources, including Met Office and regional models, indicate a daily maximum near 13°C for Wellington on August 11, 2026, with some guidance settling at 11–12°C amid typical winter conditions. This aligns with the long-term August climatological average of roughly 12–13°C driven by prevailing westerly and southerly flows over the Cook Strait, which moderate temperatures and limit extreme deviations. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA project near-average air temperatures for the region through mid-August, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 12°C (60.5%) and 13°C (31.5%) as the most probable outcomes based on ensemble consensus. No significant warm or cold anomalies appear in recent model runs, keeping lower-probability tails (14°C or higher, or 11°C or below) subdued ahead of final observational data from Wellington Airport.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$28,470End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological sources, including Met Office and regional models, indicate a daily maximum near 13°C for Wellington on August 11, 2026, with some guidance settling at 11–12°C amid typical winter conditions. This aligns with the long-term August climatological average of roughly 12–13°C driven by prevailing westerly and southerly flows over the Cook Strait, which moderate temperatures and limit extreme deviations. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA project near-average air temperatures for the region through mid-August, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 12°C (60.5%) and 13°C (31.5%) as the most probable outcomes based on ensemble consensus. No significant warm or cold anomalies appear in recent model runs, keeping lower-probability tails (14°C or higher, or 11°C or below) subdued ahead of final observational data from Wellington Airport.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,470End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological sources, including Met Office and regional models, indicate a daily maximum near 13°C for Wellington on August 11, 2026, with some guidance settling at 11–12°C amid typical winter conditions. This aligns with the long-term August climatological average of roughly 12–13°C driven by prevailing westerly and southerly flows over the Cook Strait, which moderate temperatures and limit extreme deviations. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA project near-average air temperatures for the region through mid-August, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 12°C (60.5%) and 13°C (31.5%) as the most probable outcomes based on ensemble consensus. No significant warm or cold anomalies appear in recent model runs, keeping lower-probability tails (14°C or higher, or 11°C or below) subdued ahead of final observational data from Wellington Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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