Current MetService and aligned numerical weather prediction models place Wellington’s daytime maximum on August 12 near 14 °C, with ensemble spread allowing a realistic chance of 15 °C under modest northerly flow and reduced cloud cover that enhances surface warming. The near-even 46 % / 45.5 % market split between these two outcomes reflects this narrow forecast uncertainty, as small differences in timing of any frontal passage or local wind acceleration over Cook Strait can shift the peak by 1 °C. Seasonal context reinforces the tight range: August climatological highs average 12–13 °C, so the market-implied probabilities align with near-average winter conditions rather than anomalous warmth or cold. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 12?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 12?
15°C 46%
14°C 46%
13°C 5%
16°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
5%
14°C
46%
15°C
46%
16°C
4%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 46%
14°C 46%
13°C 5%
16°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$12 Vol.
1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
3%
13°C
$30 Vol.
5%
14°C
$44 Vol.
46%
15°C
$35 Vol.
46%
16°C
$1 Vol.
4%
17°C
$20 Vol.
2%
18°C
$10 Vol.
1%
19°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current MetService and aligned numerical weather prediction models place Wellington’s daytime maximum on August 12 near 14 °C, with ensemble spread allowing a realistic chance of 15 °C under modest northerly flow and reduced cloud cover that enhances surface warming. The near-even 46 % / 45.5 % market split between these two outcomes reflects this narrow forecast uncertainty, as small differences in timing of any frontal passage or local wind acceleration over Cook Strait can shift the peak by 1 °C. Seasonal context reinforces the tight range: August climatological highs average 12–13 °C, so the market-implied probabilities align with near-average winter conditions rather than anomalous warmth or cold. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$173End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current MetService and aligned numerical weather prediction models place Wellington’s daytime maximum on August 12 near 14 °C, with ensemble spread allowing a realistic chance of 15 °C under modest northerly flow and reduced cloud cover that enhances surface warming. The near-even 46 % / 45.5 % market split between these two outcomes reflects this narrow forecast uncertainty, as small differences in timing of any frontal passage or local wind acceleration over Cook Strait can shift the peak by 1 °C. Seasonal context reinforces the tight range: August climatological highs average 12–13 °C, so the market-implied probabilities align with near-average winter conditions rather than anomalous warmth or cold. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$173End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current MetService and aligned numerical weather prediction models place Wellington’s daytime maximum on August 12 near 14 °C, with ensemble spread allowing a realistic chance of 15 °C under modest northerly flow and reduced cloud cover that enhances surface warming. The near-even 46 % / 45.5 % market split between these two outcomes reflects this narrow forecast uncertainty, as small differences in timing of any frontal passage or local wind acceleration over Cook Strait can shift the peak by 1 °C. Seasonal context reinforces the tight range: August climatological highs average 12–13 °C, so the market-implied probabilities align with near-average winter conditions rather than anomalous warmth or cold. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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