The ongoing extreme heatwave across Israel, driven by subsiding high-pressure systems and reduced sea breeze influence, is the primary factor anchoring 35°C as the leading market-implied outcome at 62.5% for Tel Aviv's August 2 maximum. Official forecasts place central coastal highs at 35–36°C during the event's peak window, consistent with climatological summer baselines near 32°C but elevated by 3–4°C due to the current synoptic pattern. Model consensus and recent observational trends support limited upside beyond 36°C or downside below 34°C, with traders incorporating uncertainty from potential minor forecast revisions by the Israel Meteorological Service ahead of the daily high measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 2?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 2?
35°C 66%
36°C 21%
34°C 14%
33°C 2%
NEW
$14,921 Vol.
NEW
$14,921 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
14%
35°C
66%
36°C
21%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 66%
36°C 21%
34°C 14%
33°C 2%
NEW
$14,921 Vol.
NEW
$14,921 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
31°C or below
$537 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$416 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,054 Vol.
2%
34°C
$4,860 Vol.
14%
35°C
$3,437 Vol.
66%
36°C
$1,740 Vol.
21%
37°C
$724 Vol.
2%
38°C
$277 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$403 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$272 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$1,201 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The ongoing extreme heatwave across Israel, driven by subsiding high-pressure systems and reduced sea breeze influence, is the primary factor anchoring 35°C as the leading market-implied outcome at 62.5% for Tel Aviv's August 2 maximum. Official forecasts place central coastal highs at 35–36°C during the event's peak window, consistent with climatological summer baselines near 32°C but elevated by 3–4°C due to the current synoptic pattern. Model consensus and recent observational trends support limited upside beyond 36°C or downside below 34°C, with traders incorporating uncertainty from potential minor forecast revisions by the Israel Meteorological Service ahead of the daily high measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$14,921End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The ongoing extreme heatwave across Israel, driven by subsiding high-pressure systems and reduced sea breeze influence, is the primary factor anchoring 35°C as the leading market-implied outcome at 62.5% for Tel Aviv's August 2 maximum. Official forecasts place central coastal highs at 35–36°C during the event's peak window, consistent with climatological summer baselines near 32°C but elevated by 3–4°C due to the current synoptic pattern. Model consensus and recent observational trends support limited upside beyond 36°C or downside below 34°C, with traders incorporating uncertainty from potential minor forecast revisions by the Israel Meteorological Service ahead of the daily high measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,921End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The ongoing extreme heatwave across Israel, driven by subsiding high-pressure systems and reduced sea breeze influence, is the primary factor anchoring 35°C as the leading market-implied outcome at 62.5% for Tel Aviv's August 2 maximum. Official forecasts place central coastal highs at 35–36°C during the event's peak window, consistent with climatological summer baselines near 32°C but elevated by 3–4°C due to the current synoptic pattern. Model consensus and recent observational trends support limited upside beyond 36°C or downside below 34°C, with traders incorporating uncertainty from potential minor forecast revisions by the Israel Meteorological Service ahead of the daily high measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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