The fourth major heatwave of summer 2026, fueled by a persistent subtropical anticyclone advecting hot air from North Africa across the Mediterranean and Po Valley, forms the dominant driver behind the market's clustering around 33–35°C for Milan's August 2 maximum. Official forecasts from sources including the Met Office and BBC indicate daytime highs near 36–37°C under mostly sunny skies and light winds, while broader Po Valley guidance points to potential peaks near 40°C in some inland spots; however, model consensus and typical urban measurement variability in Milan appear to anchor trader sentiment toward the lower end of that range. Historical August climatology for the region (average highs near 30°C) combined with the heatwave's gradual intensification and any late-model adjustments for local humidity or cloud cover further support the elevated implied probabilities for 33–35°C outcomes over cooler or extreme values above 36°C. Upcoming official updates from Italian meteorological services or ECMWF runs on August 1–2 will likely provide the next key data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 2?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 2?
34°C 36%
35°C 27%
33°C 21%
36°C 14%
NEW
$17,205 Vol.
NEW
$17,205 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
31°C or below
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
21%
34°C
36%
35°C
27%
36°C
14%
37°C
5%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
34°C 36%
35°C 27%
33°C 21%
36°C 14%
NEW
$17,205 Vol.
NEW
$17,205 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
31°C or below
$633 Vol.
1%
32°C
$2,646 Vol.
3%
33°C
$2,947 Vol.
21%
34°C
$2,089 Vol.
36%
35°C
$1,837 Vol.
27%
36°C
$4,320 Vol.
14%
37°C
$1,357 Vol.
5%
38°C
$715 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$313 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$177 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$172 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The fourth major heatwave of summer 2026, fueled by a persistent subtropical anticyclone advecting hot air from North Africa across the Mediterranean and Po Valley, forms the dominant driver behind the market's clustering around 33–35°C for Milan's August 2 maximum. Official forecasts from sources including the Met Office and BBC indicate daytime highs near 36–37°C under mostly sunny skies and light winds, while broader Po Valley guidance points to potential peaks near 40°C in some inland spots; however, model consensus and typical urban measurement variability in Milan appear to anchor trader sentiment toward the lower end of that range. Historical August climatology for the region (average highs near 30°C) combined with the heatwave's gradual intensification and any late-model adjustments for local humidity or cloud cover further support the elevated implied probabilities for 33–35°C outcomes over cooler or extreme values above 36°C. Upcoming official updates from Italian meteorological services or ECMWF runs on August 1–2 will likely provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$17,205End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The fourth major heatwave of summer 2026, fueled by a persistent subtropical anticyclone advecting hot air from North Africa across the Mediterranean and Po Valley, forms the dominant driver behind the market's clustering around 33–35°C for Milan's August 2 maximum. Official forecasts from sources including the Met Office and BBC indicate daytime highs near 36–37°C under mostly sunny skies and light winds, while broader Po Valley guidance points to potential peaks near 40°C in some inland spots; however, model consensus and typical urban measurement variability in Milan appear to anchor trader sentiment toward the lower end of that range. Historical August climatology for the region (average highs near 30°C) combined with the heatwave's gradual intensification and any late-model adjustments for local humidity or cloud cover further support the elevated implied probabilities for 33–35°C outcomes over cooler or extreme values above 36°C. Upcoming official updates from Italian meteorological services or ECMWF runs on August 1–2 will likely provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,205End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...The fourth major heatwave of summer 2026, fueled by a persistent subtropical anticyclone advecting hot air from North Africa across the Mediterranean and Po Valley, forms the dominant driver behind the market's clustering around 33–35°C for Milan's August 2 maximum. Official forecasts from sources including the Met Office and BBC indicate daytime highs near 36–37°C under mostly sunny skies and light winds, while broader Po Valley guidance points to potential peaks near 40°C in some inland spots; however, model consensus and typical urban measurement variability in Milan appear to anchor trader sentiment toward the lower end of that range. Historical August climatology for the region (average highs near 30°C) combined with the heatwave's gradual intensification and any late-model adjustments for local humidity or cloud cover further support the elevated implied probabilities for 33–35°C outcomes over cooler or extreme values above 36°C. Upcoming official updates from Italian meteorological services or ECMWF runs on August 1–2 will likely provide the next key data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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