Wellington's maritime climate, moderated by surrounding ocean waters and frequent southerly winds, typically produces August daily maximum temperatures near 12°C, consistent with long-term averages and climatological baselines. Current short-range forecasts from sources including the Met Office and AccuWeather project a maximum of 12°C for August 2, 2026, with possible variation to 13°C under stable high-pressure conditions or light northerly flow. NIWA's June–August seasonal outlook reinforces near-average temperatures as the most probable outcome for the Wellington region, with no significant warm or cold anomalies indicated in recent model guidance. These factors concentrate trader-implied probabilities on 12–13°C outcomes, while the low odds for extremes above 14°C or below 11°C reflect the narrow historical range and limited forecast uncertainty this close to the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 2?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 2?
13°C 62%
12°C 25%
14°C 12%
11°C 2%
NEW
$20,750 Vol.
NEW
$20,750 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
25%
13°C
62%
14°C
12%
15°C
2%
16°C or higher
<1%
13°C 62%
12°C 25%
14°C 12%
11°C 2%
NEW
$20,750 Vol.
NEW
$20,750 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
6°C or below
$372 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$382 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$392 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$392 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,999 Vol.
1%
11°C
$3,541 Vol.
2%
12°C
$4,281 Vol.
25%
13°C
$3,449 Vol.
62%
14°C
$3,436 Vol.
12%
15°C
$2,170 Vol.
2%
16°C or higher
$337 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's maritime climate, moderated by surrounding ocean waters and frequent southerly winds, typically produces August daily maximum temperatures near 12°C, consistent with long-term averages and climatological baselines. Current short-range forecasts from sources including the Met Office and AccuWeather project a maximum of 12°C for August 2, 2026, with possible variation to 13°C under stable high-pressure conditions or light northerly flow. NIWA's June–August seasonal outlook reinforces near-average temperatures as the most probable outcome for the Wellington region, with no significant warm or cold anomalies indicated in recent model guidance. These factors concentrate trader-implied probabilities on 12–13°C outcomes, while the low odds for extremes above 14°C or below 11°C reflect the narrow historical range and limited forecast uncertainty this close to the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$20,750End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's maritime climate, moderated by surrounding ocean waters and frequent southerly winds, typically produces August daily maximum temperatures near 12°C, consistent with long-term averages and climatological baselines. Current short-range forecasts from sources including the Met Office and AccuWeather project a maximum of 12°C for August 2, 2026, with possible variation to 13°C under stable high-pressure conditions or light northerly flow. NIWA's June–August seasonal outlook reinforces near-average temperatures as the most probable outcome for the Wellington region, with no significant warm or cold anomalies indicated in recent model guidance. These factors concentrate trader-implied probabilities on 12–13°C outcomes, while the low odds for extremes above 14°C or below 11°C reflect the narrow historical range and limited forecast uncertainty this close to the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,750End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington's maritime climate, moderated by surrounding ocean waters and frequent southerly winds, typically produces August daily maximum temperatures near 12°C, consistent with long-term averages and climatological baselines. Current short-range forecasts from sources including the Met Office and AccuWeather project a maximum of 12°C for August 2, 2026, with possible variation to 13°C under stable high-pressure conditions or light northerly flow. NIWA's June–August seasonal outlook reinforces near-average temperatures as the most probable outcome for the Wellington region, with no significant warm or cold anomalies indicated in recent model guidance. These factors concentrate trader-implied probabilities on 12–13°C outcomes, while the low odds for extremes above 14°C or below 11°C reflect the narrow historical range and limited forecast uncertainty this close to the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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