**Trader consensus centers on 27–28°C as the highest temperature in Istanbul on August 2, reflecting model guidance showing modest cooling from seasonal norms.** Long-range climatology places the early-August daily high near 29°C under typical Mediterranean high-pressure patterns with light northerly winds. Recent forecasts from BBC Weather and timeanddate.com indicate 29–30°C under sunny skies with fresh northeasterly breezes around 21 mph, while AccuWeather’s broader August envelope spans 26–33°C. The 49.5% market-implied probability on 27°C suggests traders are weighting potential wind-driven mixing or minor cloud increases that could cap the peak, consistent with observed summer variability in the Bosphorus region where sea-surface temperatures moderate extremes. No major forecast shifts or anomalous indices have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this narrow range ahead of tomorrow’s official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 2?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 2?
27°C 49%
28°C 32%
26°C 11%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
11%
27°C
49%
28°C
32%
29°C
6%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 49%
28°C 32%
26°C 11%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
23°C or below
$537 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$470 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$234 Vol.
2%
26°C
$626 Vol.
11%
27°C
$899 Vol.
49%
28°C
$1,663 Vol.
32%
29°C
$686 Vol.
6%
30°C
$992 Vol.
4%
31°C
$205 Vol.
1%
32°C
$301 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$300 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 27–28°C as the highest temperature in Istanbul on August 2, reflecting model guidance showing modest cooling from seasonal norms.** Long-range climatology places the early-August daily high near 29°C under typical Mediterranean high-pressure patterns with light northerly winds. Recent forecasts from BBC Weather and timeanddate.com indicate 29–30°C under sunny skies with fresh northeasterly breezes around 21 mph, while AccuWeather’s broader August envelope spans 26–33°C. The 49.5% market-implied probability on 27°C suggests traders are weighting potential wind-driven mixing or minor cloud increases that could cap the peak, consistent with observed summer variability in the Bosphorus region where sea-surface temperatures moderate extremes. No major forecast shifts or anomalous indices have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this narrow range ahead of tomorrow’s official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$6,915End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 27–28°C as the highest temperature in Istanbul on August 2, reflecting model guidance showing modest cooling from seasonal norms.** Long-range climatology places the early-August daily high near 29°C under typical Mediterranean high-pressure patterns with light northerly winds. Recent forecasts from BBC Weather and timeanddate.com indicate 29–30°C under sunny skies with fresh northeasterly breezes around 21 mph, while AccuWeather’s broader August envelope spans 26–33°C. The 49.5% market-implied probability on 27°C suggests traders are weighting potential wind-driven mixing or minor cloud increases that could cap the peak, consistent with observed summer variability in the Bosphorus region where sea-surface temperatures moderate extremes. No major forecast shifts or anomalous indices have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this narrow range ahead of tomorrow’s official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,915End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on 27–28°C as the highest temperature in Istanbul on August 2, reflecting model guidance showing modest cooling from seasonal norms.** Long-range climatology places the early-August daily high near 29°C under typical Mediterranean high-pressure patterns with light northerly winds. Recent forecasts from BBC Weather and timeanddate.com indicate 29–30°C under sunny skies with fresh northeasterly breezes around 21 mph, while AccuWeather’s broader August envelope spans 26–33°C. The 49.5% market-implied probability on 27°C suggests traders are weighting potential wind-driven mixing or minor cloud increases that could cap the peak, consistent with observed summer variability in the Bosphorus region where sea-surface temperatures moderate extremes. No major forecast shifts or anomalous indices have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this narrow range ahead of tomorrow’s official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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