Latest National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble guidance for Austin shows daytime maximum temperatures tightly clustered between the upper 90s and low 100s °F on August 2, with model spread driven by small differences in predicted dew points, afternoon cloud cover, and boundary-layer mixing. High pressure and typical August subsidence favor strong insolation and urban heat retention, while modest variations in low-level moisture or wind speed can shift the peak by 2–3 °F. The narrow spread between 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F outcomes reflects this forecast uncertainty, which will narrow with the next model cycles and official updates through the evening of August 1. Historical climatology places early-August Austin highs near 96–98 °F, providing context for the current elevated signal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 2?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 2?
100-101°F 39%
98-99°F 38%
102-103°F 14%
96-97°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
91°F or below
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
7%
98-99°F
38%
100-101°F
39%
102-103°F
14%
104-105°F
3%
106-107°F
1%
108-109°F
<1%
110°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 39%
98-99°F 38%
102-103°F 14%
96-97°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
91°F or below
$27 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$53 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$29 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$380 Vol.
7%
98-99°F
$102 Vol.
38%
100-101°F
$124 Vol.
39%
102-103°F
$11 Vol.
14%
104-105°F
$1 Vol.
3%
106-107°F
$47 Vol.
1%
108-109°F
$53 Vol.
<1%
110°F or higher
$87 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble guidance for Austin shows daytime maximum temperatures tightly clustered between the upper 90s and low 100s °F on August 2, with model spread driven by small differences in predicted dew points, afternoon cloud cover, and boundary-layer mixing. High pressure and typical August subsidence favor strong insolation and urban heat retention, while modest variations in low-level moisture or wind speed can shift the peak by 2–3 °F. The narrow spread between 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F outcomes reflects this forecast uncertainty, which will narrow with the next model cycles and official updates through the evening of August 1. Historical climatology places early-August Austin highs near 96–98 °F, providing context for the current elevated signal.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$914End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble guidance for Austin shows daytime maximum temperatures tightly clustered between the upper 90s and low 100s °F on August 2, with model spread driven by small differences in predicted dew points, afternoon cloud cover, and boundary-layer mixing. High pressure and typical August subsidence favor strong insolation and urban heat retention, while modest variations in low-level moisture or wind speed can shift the peak by 2–3 °F. The narrow spread between 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F outcomes reflects this forecast uncertainty, which will narrow with the next model cycles and official updates through the evening of August 1. Historical climatology places early-August Austin highs near 96–98 °F, providing context for the current elevated signal.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$914End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble guidance for Austin shows daytime maximum temperatures tightly clustered between the upper 90s and low 100s °F on August 2, with model spread driven by small differences in predicted dew points, afternoon cloud cover, and boundary-layer mixing. High pressure and typical August subsidence favor strong insolation and urban heat retention, while modest variations in low-level moisture or wind speed can shift the peak by 2–3 °F. The narrow spread between 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F outcomes reflects this forecast uncertainty, which will narrow with the next model cycles and official updates through the evening of August 1. Historical climatology places early-August Austin highs near 96–98 °F, providing context for the current elevated signal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions