Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Austin show afternoon highs centered in the upper 90s under persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover, aligning with the market's leading 98-99°F outcome at 42% implied probability. Model consensus from NOAA guidance places the daily maximum near 98°F, consistent with August climatology where typical highs range 95-100°F and extreme heat events remain possible but less likely without strong subsidence or dry air advection. Traders appear to weigh these official projections heavily, with lower odds on 100°F+ reflecting the narrow window for additional warming before evening cooling begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 1?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 1?
98-99°F 43%
96-97°F 30%
100-101°F 27%
102-103°F 5%
NEW
$21,755 Vol.
NEW
$21,755 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
91°F or below
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
30%
98-99°F
43%
100-101°F
27%
102-103°F
5%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
108-109°F
<1%
110°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 43%
96-97°F 30%
100-101°F 27%
102-103°F 5%
NEW
$21,755 Vol.
NEW
$21,755 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
91°F or below
$1,629 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$560 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$2,353 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$4,010 Vol.
30%
98-99°F
$3,732 Vol.
43%
100-101°F
$4,133 Vol.
27%
102-103°F
$2,368 Vol.
5%
104-105°F
$2,091 Vol.
<1%
106-107°F
$299 Vol.
<1%
108-109°F
$287 Vol.
<1%
110°F or higher
$294 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Austin show afternoon highs centered in the upper 90s under persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover, aligning with the market's leading 98-99°F outcome at 42% implied probability. Model consensus from NOAA guidance places the daily maximum near 98°F, consistent with August climatology where typical highs range 95-100°F and extreme heat events remain possible but less likely without strong subsidence or dry air advection. Traders appear to weigh these official projections heavily, with lower odds on 100°F+ reflecting the narrow window for additional warming before evening cooling begins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$21,755End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Austin show afternoon highs centered in the upper 90s under persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover, aligning with the market's leading 98-99°F outcome at 42% implied probability. Model consensus from NOAA guidance places the daily maximum near 98°F, consistent with August climatology where typical highs range 95-100°F and extreme heat events remain possible but less likely without strong subsidence or dry air advection. Traders appear to weigh these official projections heavily, with lower odds on 100°F+ reflecting the narrow window for additional warming before evening cooling begins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,755End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Austin show afternoon highs centered in the upper 90s under persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover, aligning with the market's leading 98-99°F outcome at 42% implied probability. Model consensus from NOAA guidance places the daily maximum near 98°F, consistent with August climatology where typical highs range 95-100°F and extreme heat events remain possible but less likely without strong subsidence or dry air advection. Traders appear to weigh these official projections heavily, with lower odds on 100°F+ reflecting the narrow window for additional warming before evening cooling begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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