Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature near 26°C for Incheon and Seoul on August 2, aligning with the market's leading 54.5% implied probability on that outcome. Persistent midsummer heat, including active heat-wave advisories across the region, has elevated overnight lows above the August climatological average of roughly 23–24°C. Mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions overnight are expected to limit additional radiative cooling, while high humidity and light winds reduce the potential for sharper drops. Recent model runs show tight clustering around 25–27°C, with limited divergence, reinforcing trader consensus on 26°C or 27°C while assigning minimal odds to extremes outside that narrow band. Updated short-range guidance ahead of dawn on August 2 remains the key near-term data point.