Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance for New York City points to overnight lows in the mid-70s Fahrenheit on August 2, driven by persistent southerly flow and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Atlantic that limit nocturnal cooling. The broader August outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center favors warmer-than-average conditions across the Northeast, with a 40-50% probability of above-normal temperatures, consistent with the current El Niño influence extending into late summer. Market-implied odds, led by the 74-75°F bin at 42.5%, reflect trader assessment of ensemble consensus and limited variability in short-range forecasts this close to the observation window, though minor shifts in dew-point or cloud cover could still adjust the final minimum recorded at Central Park.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 2?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 2?
74-75°F 46%
72-73°F 24%
76-77°F 23%
78-79°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
24%
74-75°F
46%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
1%
74-75°F 46%
72-73°F 24%
76-77°F 23%
78-79°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
63°F or below
$67 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$70 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$82 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$64 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$47 Vol.
6%
72-73°F
$100 Vol.
24%
74-75°F
$567 Vol.
46%
76-77°F
$65 Vol.
23%
78-79°F
$71 Vol.
9%
80-81°F
$67 Vol.
1%
82°F or higher
$35 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance for New York City points to overnight lows in the mid-70s Fahrenheit on August 2, driven by persistent southerly flow and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Atlantic that limit nocturnal cooling. The broader August outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center favors warmer-than-average conditions across the Northeast, with a 40-50% probability of above-normal temperatures, consistent with the current El Niño influence extending into late summer. Market-implied odds, led by the 74-75°F bin at 42.5%, reflect trader assessment of ensemble consensus and limited variability in short-range forecasts this close to the observation window, though minor shifts in dew-point or cloud cover could still adjust the final minimum recorded at Central Park.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,234End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance for New York City points to overnight lows in the mid-70s Fahrenheit on August 2, driven by persistent southerly flow and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Atlantic that limit nocturnal cooling. The broader August outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center favors warmer-than-average conditions across the Northeast, with a 40-50% probability of above-normal temperatures, consistent with the current El Niño influence extending into late summer. Market-implied odds, led by the 74-75°F bin at 42.5%, reflect trader assessment of ensemble consensus and limited variability in short-range forecasts this close to the observation window, though minor shifts in dew-point or cloud cover could still adjust the final minimum recorded at Central Park.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,234End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance for New York City points to overnight lows in the mid-70s Fahrenheit on August 2, driven by persistent southerly flow and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Atlantic that limit nocturnal cooling. The broader August outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center favors warmer-than-average conditions across the Northeast, with a 40-50% probability of above-normal temperatures, consistent with the current El Niño influence extending into late summer. Market-implied odds, led by the 74-75°F bin at 42.5%, reflect trader assessment of ensemble consensus and limited variability in short-range forecasts this close to the observation window, though minor shifts in dew-point or cloud cover could still adjust the final minimum recorded at Central Park.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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