Recent JMA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate persistent cloud cover over Tokyo on August 3, with only scattered showers possible, limiting daytime heating compared to typical midsummer maxima near 32 °C. This pattern, driven by a stationary front and moist southerly flow, has shifted model consensus toward afternoon highs of 26–28 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest positioning on those outcomes. Historical analogs for similar synoptic setups show maximum temperatures rarely exceeding 29 °C under overcast conditions, while clearer scenarios remain low-probability given the current steering pattern. Updated short-range guidance and any clearing trends ahead of resolution will be the key variables for traders monitoring this market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 3?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 3?
27°C 38%
26°C 25%
28°C 25%
29°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
25%
27°C
38%
28°C
25%
29°C
9%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 38%
26°C 25%
28°C 25%
29°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
22°C or below
$356 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$356 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$754 Vol.
2%
25°C
$96 Vol.
6%
26°C
$400 Vol.
25%
27°C
$677 Vol.
38%
28°C
$103 Vol.
25%
29°C
$78 Vol.
9%
30°C
$135 Vol.
4%
31°C
$291 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$251 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate persistent cloud cover over Tokyo on August 3, with only scattered showers possible, limiting daytime heating compared to typical midsummer maxima near 32 °C. This pattern, driven by a stationary front and moist southerly flow, has shifted model consensus toward afternoon highs of 26–28 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest positioning on those outcomes. Historical analogs for similar synoptic setups show maximum temperatures rarely exceeding 29 °C under overcast conditions, while clearer scenarios remain low-probability given the current steering pattern. Updated short-range guidance and any clearing trends ahead of resolution will be the key variables for traders monitoring this market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$3,497End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate persistent cloud cover over Tokyo on August 3, with only scattered showers possible, limiting daytime heating compared to typical midsummer maxima near 32 °C. This pattern, driven by a stationary front and moist southerly flow, has shifted model consensus toward afternoon highs of 26–28 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest positioning on those outcomes. Historical analogs for similar synoptic setups show maximum temperatures rarely exceeding 29 °C under overcast conditions, while clearer scenarios remain low-probability given the current steering pattern. Updated short-range guidance and any clearing trends ahead of resolution will be the key variables for traders monitoring this market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,497End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate persistent cloud cover over Tokyo on August 3, with only scattered showers possible, limiting daytime heating compared to typical midsummer maxima near 32 °C. This pattern, driven by a stationary front and moist southerly flow, has shifted model consensus toward afternoon highs of 26–28 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest positioning on those outcomes. Historical analogs for similar synoptic setups show maximum temperatures rarely exceeding 29 °C under overcast conditions, while clearer scenarios remain low-probability given the current steering pattern. Updated short-range guidance and any clearing trends ahead of resolution will be the key variables for traders monitoring this market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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