**Market-implied odds favor 36–37°C for Taipei’s August 3 peak, reflecting model uncertainty around peak insolation in a subtropical summer regime.** Official Central Weather Administration guidance currently projects a 35°C high under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, yet traders price modest upside because historical analogs show urban heat-island amplification and brief clear-sky windows can add 1–2°C above guidance. Key differentiating variables include boundary-layer mixing depth, afternoon sea-breeze onset timing, and any late-day convective cloud development that caps surface heating. With 48-hour lead time, the next CWA model runs and satellite-derived land-surface temperature trends will narrow the 35–37°C spread that currently dominates trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on August 3?
Highest temperature in Taipei on August 3?
37°C 38%
36°C 34%
35°C 14%
38°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
3%
34°C
6%
35°C
14%
36°C
34%
37°C
38%
38°C
12%
39°C
3%
40°C or higher
6%
37°C 38%
36°C 34%
35°C 14%
38°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
30°C or below
$70 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$47 Vol.
1%
32°C
$20 Vol.
2%
33°C
$14 Vol.
3%
34°C
$3 Vol.
6%
35°C
$20 Vol.
14%
36°C
$241 Vol.
34%
37°C
$117 Vol.
38%
38°C
$188 Vol.
12%
39°C
$201 Vol.
3%
40°C or higher
$10 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor 36–37°C for Taipei’s August 3 peak, reflecting model uncertainty around peak insolation in a subtropical summer regime.** Official Central Weather Administration guidance currently projects a 35°C high under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, yet traders price modest upside because historical analogs show urban heat-island amplification and brief clear-sky windows can add 1–2°C above guidance. Key differentiating variables include boundary-layer mixing depth, afternoon sea-breeze onset timing, and any late-day convective cloud development that caps surface heating. With 48-hour lead time, the next CWA model runs and satellite-derived land-surface temperature trends will narrow the 35–37°C spread that currently dominates trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$931End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor 36–37°C for Taipei’s August 3 peak, reflecting model uncertainty around peak insolation in a subtropical summer regime.** Official Central Weather Administration guidance currently projects a 35°C high under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, yet traders price modest upside because historical analogs show urban heat-island amplification and brief clear-sky windows can add 1–2°C above guidance. Key differentiating variables include boundary-layer mixing depth, afternoon sea-breeze onset timing, and any late-day convective cloud development that caps surface heating. With 48-hour lead time, the next CWA model runs and satellite-derived land-surface temperature trends will narrow the 35–37°C spread that currently dominates trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$931End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds favor 36–37°C for Taipei’s August 3 peak, reflecting model uncertainty around peak insolation in a subtropical summer regime.** Official Central Weather Administration guidance currently projects a 35°C high under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, yet traders price modest upside because historical analogs show urban heat-island amplification and brief clear-sky windows can add 1–2°C above guidance. Key differentiating variables include boundary-layer mixing depth, afternoon sea-breeze onset timing, and any late-day convective cloud development that caps surface heating. With 48-hour lead time, the next CWA model runs and satellite-derived land-surface temperature trends will narrow the 35–37°C spread that currently dominates trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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