Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show a strong consensus for peak temperatures near 36°C in Qingdao on August 2, driven by clear skies, light southerly flow, and elevated boundary-layer moisture that limits overnight cooling. This positions the 36°C outcome as the market leader, with 35°C and 37°C reflecting typical model spread and local urban heat-island effects. August climatology averages 29–30°C highs, so current guidance indicates a notable warm anomaly, though small timing shifts in the sea-breeze front could trim the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Updated CMA forecasts and next model runs tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts for any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 2?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on August 2?
36°C 45%
35°C 26%
37°C 25%
38°C or higher 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
4%
35°C
26%
36°C
45%
37°C
25%
38°C or higher
7%
36°C 45%
35°C 26%
37°C 25%
38°C or higher 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
28°C or below
$408 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$423 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$446 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$387 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$677 Vol.
1%
33°C
$766 Vol.
1%
34°C
$814 Vol.
4%
35°C
$568 Vol.
26%
36°C
$620 Vol.
45%
37°C
$964 Vol.
25%
38°C or higher
$564 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show a strong consensus for peak temperatures near 36°C in Qingdao on August 2, driven by clear skies, light southerly flow, and elevated boundary-layer moisture that limits overnight cooling. This positions the 36°C outcome as the market leader, with 35°C and 37°C reflecting typical model spread and local urban heat-island effects. August climatology averages 29–30°C highs, so current guidance indicates a notable warm anomaly, though small timing shifts in the sea-breeze front could trim the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Updated CMA forecasts and next model runs tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$6,637End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show a strong consensus for peak temperatures near 36°C in Qingdao on August 2, driven by clear skies, light southerly flow, and elevated boundary-layer moisture that limits overnight cooling. This positions the 36°C outcome as the market leader, with 35°C and 37°C reflecting typical model spread and local urban heat-island effects. August climatology averages 29–30°C highs, so current guidance indicates a notable warm anomaly, though small timing shifts in the sea-breeze front could trim the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Updated CMA forecasts and next model runs tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,637End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show a strong consensus for peak temperatures near 36°C in Qingdao on August 2, driven by clear skies, light southerly flow, and elevated boundary-layer moisture that limits overnight cooling. This positions the 36°C outcome as the market leader, with 35°C and 37°C reflecting typical model spread and local urban heat-island effects. August climatology averages 29–30°C highs, so current guidance indicates a notable warm anomaly, though small timing shifts in the sea-breeze front could trim the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Updated CMA forecasts and next model runs tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts for any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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