Latest forecast models indicate a peak near 37°C (98°F) for Shanghai on August 2 amid subtropical high pressure, driving the tight 36–37°C market split at roughly 43% and 38% implied probability. Persistent summer humidity, light winds, and potential late-day cloud cover or showers introduce modest uncertainty in the exact maximum, keeping 35°C at 15% while sidelining extremes. These conditions align with regional climatology where August highs frequently reach the mid-30s Celsius, with model consensus favoring the upper end of that range for the date. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine timing of any precipitation and thus the daily peak ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 2?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2?
36°C 45%
37°C 38%
35°C 15%
34°C 4%
NEW
$23,933 Vol.
NEW
$23,933 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
4%
35°C
15%
36°C
45%
37°C
38%
38°C
3%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
36°C 45%
37°C 38%
35°C 15%
34°C 4%
NEW
$23,933 Vol.
NEW
$23,933 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
30°C or below
$428 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$494 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$984 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,302 Vol.
2%
34°C
$2,424 Vol.
4%
35°C
$6,238 Vol.
15%
36°C
$2,130 Vol.
45%
37°C
$3,442 Vol.
38%
38°C
$4,295 Vol.
3%
39°C
$1,340 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$857 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models indicate a peak near 37°C (98°F) for Shanghai on August 2 amid subtropical high pressure, driving the tight 36–37°C market split at roughly 43% and 38% implied probability. Persistent summer humidity, light winds, and potential late-day cloud cover or showers introduce modest uncertainty in the exact maximum, keeping 35°C at 15% while sidelining extremes. These conditions align with regional climatology where August highs frequently reach the mid-30s Celsius, with model consensus favoring the upper end of that range for the date. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine timing of any precipitation and thus the daily peak ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$23,933End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models indicate a peak near 37°C (98°F) for Shanghai on August 2 amid subtropical high pressure, driving the tight 36–37°C market split at roughly 43% and 38% implied probability. Persistent summer humidity, light winds, and potential late-day cloud cover or showers introduce modest uncertainty in the exact maximum, keeping 35°C at 15% while sidelining extremes. These conditions align with regional climatology where August highs frequently reach the mid-30s Celsius, with model consensus favoring the upper end of that range for the date. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine timing of any precipitation and thus the daily peak ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,933End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast models indicate a peak near 37°C (98°F) for Shanghai on August 2 amid subtropical high pressure, driving the tight 36–37°C market split at roughly 43% and 38% implied probability. Persistent summer humidity, light winds, and potential late-day cloud cover or showers introduce modest uncertainty in the exact maximum, keeping 35°C at 15% while sidelining extremes. These conditions align with regional climatology where August highs frequently reach the mid-30s Celsius, with model consensus favoring the upper end of that range for the date. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine timing of any precipitation and thus the daily peak ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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