Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model consensus drives the market-implied odds, projecting a Houston high near 98–100°F on August 1 amid persistent summer ridging, mostly sunny skies, and light southwest winds. Afternoon convective timing and any weak frontal influence introduce minor cooling risk, splitting trader sentiment narrowly between the 98–99°F and 96–97°F bins at the official Hobby Airport station. Above-normal heat follows several days of upper-90s to triple-digit readings, exceeding the long-term August average high of about 95°F, while high humidity elevates heat indices above 105°F without directly affecting dry-bulb measurements. Updated model runs and midday observations will refine exact peak values ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 1?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 1?
98-99°F 54%
96-97°F 35%
100-101°F 9%
94-95°F 3%
NEW
$16,914 Vol.
NEW
$16,914 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
3%
96-97°F
35%
98-99°F
54%
100-101°F
9%
102-103°F
1%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 54%
96-97°F 35%
100-101°F 9%
94-95°F 3%
NEW
$16,914 Vol.
NEW
$16,914 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
89°F or below
$257 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$282 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$919 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$3,125 Vol.
3%
96-97°F
$4,683 Vol.
35%
98-99°F
$4,517 Vol.
54%
100-101°F
$1,481 Vol.
9%
102-103°F
$626 Vol.
1%
104-105°F
$483 Vol.
<1%
106-107°F
$267 Vol.
<1%
108°F or higher
$275 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model consensus drives the market-implied odds, projecting a Houston high near 98–100°F on August 1 amid persistent summer ridging, mostly sunny skies, and light southwest winds. Afternoon convective timing and any weak frontal influence introduce minor cooling risk, splitting trader sentiment narrowly between the 98–99°F and 96–97°F bins at the official Hobby Airport station. Above-normal heat follows several days of upper-90s to triple-digit readings, exceeding the long-term August average high of about 95°F, while high humidity elevates heat indices above 105°F without directly affecting dry-bulb measurements. Updated model runs and midday observations will refine exact peak values ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$16,914End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model consensus drives the market-implied odds, projecting a Houston high near 98–100°F on August 1 amid persistent summer ridging, mostly sunny skies, and light southwest winds. Afternoon convective timing and any weak frontal influence introduce minor cooling risk, splitting trader sentiment narrowly between the 98–99°F and 96–97°F bins at the official Hobby Airport station. Above-normal heat follows several days of upper-90s to triple-digit readings, exceeding the long-term August average high of about 95°F, while high humidity elevates heat indices above 105°F without directly affecting dry-bulb measurements. Updated model runs and midday observations will refine exact peak values ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,914End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model consensus drives the market-implied odds, projecting a Houston high near 98–100°F on August 1 amid persistent summer ridging, mostly sunny skies, and light southwest winds. Afternoon convective timing and any weak frontal influence introduce minor cooling risk, splitting trader sentiment narrowly between the 98–99°F and 96–97°F bins at the official Hobby Airport station. Above-normal heat follows several days of upper-90s to triple-digit readings, exceeding the long-term August average high of about 95°F, while high humidity elevates heat indices above 105°F without directly affecting dry-bulb measurements. Updated model runs and midday observations will refine exact peak values ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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