Recent forecasts from sources including AccuWeather and local meteorological services point to clear skies over Guangzhou on August 11, supporting daytime highs near 37–38°C amid typical subtropical summer conditions with elevated humidity and light winds. Seasonal baselines show August averages around 33°C, but recent model runs and observed warming trends have elevated probabilities for the upper end of the range, with 37°C holding the largest market share at 48% implied probability. Key variables include potential afternoon convection or slight cloud increases that could cap the peak, alongside urban heat effects. Updated observations and refined short-range models ahead of the date will likely refine trader positioning on these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 11?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 11?
37°C 50%
36°C 31%
38°C 20%
39°C 3%
NEW
$16,035 Vol.
NEW
$16,035 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
31%
37°C
50%
38°C
20%
39°C
3%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
37°C 50%
36°C 31%
38°C 20%
39°C 3%
NEW
$16,035 Vol.
NEW
$16,035 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
31°C or below
$338 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$388 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$805 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$2,721 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$833 Vol.
1%
36°C
$1,628 Vol.
31%
37°C
$2,749 Vol.
50%
38°C
$3,145 Vol.
20%
39°C
$2,057 Vol.
3%
40°C
$981 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$713 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including AccuWeather and local meteorological services point to clear skies over Guangzhou on August 11, supporting daytime highs near 37–38°C amid typical subtropical summer conditions with elevated humidity and light winds. Seasonal baselines show August averages around 33°C, but recent model runs and observed warming trends have elevated probabilities for the upper end of the range, with 37°C holding the largest market share at 48% implied probability. Key variables include potential afternoon convection or slight cloud increases that could cap the peak, alongside urban heat effects. Updated observations and refined short-range models ahead of the date will likely refine trader positioning on these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$16,035End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including AccuWeather and local meteorological services point to clear skies over Guangzhou on August 11, supporting daytime highs near 37–38°C amid typical subtropical summer conditions with elevated humidity and light winds. Seasonal baselines show August averages around 33°C, but recent model runs and observed warming trends have elevated probabilities for the upper end of the range, with 37°C holding the largest market share at 48% implied probability. Key variables include potential afternoon convection or slight cloud increases that could cap the peak, alongside urban heat effects. Updated observations and refined short-range models ahead of the date will likely refine trader positioning on these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,035End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources including AccuWeather and local meteorological services point to clear skies over Guangzhou on August 11, supporting daytime highs near 37–38°C amid typical subtropical summer conditions with elevated humidity and light winds. Seasonal baselines show August averages around 33°C, but recent model runs and observed warming trends have elevated probabilities for the upper end of the range, with 37°C holding the largest market share at 48% implied probability. Key variables include potential afternoon convection or slight cloud increases that could cap the peak, alongside urban heat effects. Updated observations and refined short-range models ahead of the date will likely refine trader positioning on these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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