The September 13, 2026, Swedish regional election will set the composition of Region Dalarna’s board and determine its chair through post-election coalition negotiations. Current chair Elin Norén (Social Democrats) holds a narrow lead in trader consensus, reflecting her incumbency and party’s recent performance, while Sofia Jarl (Center Party) and Kent Ekeroth (Sweden Democrats) trail with lower implied probabilities. A fragmented result or shifting alliances among major parties could alter the outcome, as the chair typically emerges from the largest bloc or governing agreement. Upcoming candidate lists, local polling shifts, and any cross-party pacts before or immediately after election night represent the primary variables that may widen or close the gap among contenders.