Recent National Weather Service and private model runs for August 1, 2026, indicate a warm, mostly sunny pattern with highs centered in the mid- to upper-80s, driving the market’s tight clustering between 84–87 °F. Forecasters cite a building high-pressure ridge that limits cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating, while moderate dew points near 65–70 °F add to the perceived warmth without triggering widespread convection. Historical Central Park data show an early-August average high of 83 °F, so current guidance sits slightly above normal; any late-morning model shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed could trim or boost the peak by 1–2 °F before the daily maximum is recorded. Traders are therefore weighting the latest 12–18 h forecasts most heavily as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 1?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 1?
86-87°F 45%
84-85°F 39%
82-83°F 10%
88-89°F 10%
NEW
$27,063 Vol.
NEW
$27,063 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
39%
86-87°F
45%
88-89°F
10%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 45%
84-85°F 39%
82-83°F 10%
88-89°F 10%
NEW
$27,063 Vol.
NEW
$27,063 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
75°F or below
$190 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$453 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$420 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,859 Vol.
2%
82-83°F
$4,652 Vol.
10%
84-85°F
$8,824 Vol.
39%
86-87°F
$4,528 Vol.
45%
88-89°F
$3,492 Vol.
10%
90-91°F
$1,882 Vol.
2%
92-93°F
$408 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$356 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model runs for August 1, 2026, indicate a warm, mostly sunny pattern with highs centered in the mid- to upper-80s, driving the market’s tight clustering between 84–87 °F. Forecasters cite a building high-pressure ridge that limits cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating, while moderate dew points near 65–70 °F add to the perceived warmth without triggering widespread convection. Historical Central Park data show an early-August average high of 83 °F, so current guidance sits slightly above normal; any late-morning model shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed could trim or boost the peak by 1–2 °F before the daily maximum is recorded. Traders are therefore weighting the latest 12–18 h forecasts most heavily as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$27,063End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model runs for August 1, 2026, indicate a warm, mostly sunny pattern with highs centered in the mid- to upper-80s, driving the market’s tight clustering between 84–87 °F. Forecasters cite a building high-pressure ridge that limits cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating, while moderate dew points near 65–70 °F add to the perceived warmth without triggering widespread convection. Historical Central Park data show an early-August average high of 83 °F, so current guidance sits slightly above normal; any late-morning model shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed could trim or boost the peak by 1–2 °F before the daily maximum is recorded. Traders are therefore weighting the latest 12–18 h forecasts most heavily as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,063End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model runs for August 1, 2026, indicate a warm, mostly sunny pattern with highs centered in the mid- to upper-80s, driving the market’s tight clustering between 84–87 °F. Forecasters cite a building high-pressure ridge that limits cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating, while moderate dew points near 65–70 °F add to the perceived warmth without triggering widespread convection. Historical Central Park data show an early-August average high of 83 °F, so current guidance sits slightly above normal; any late-morning model shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed could trim or boost the peak by 1–2 °F before the daily maximum is recorded. Traders are therefore weighting the latest 12–18 h forecasts most heavily as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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