Short-range forecasts from meteorological agencies and models position Moscow’s August 2 daytime high near 29–30 °C, with limited upside potential to 31 °C under partly cloudy skies and light winds that restrict stronger daytime heating. Model consensus emphasizes modest advection of warmer air without significant synoptic support for rapid warming, keeping temperatures clustered around these values rather than extremes. This scientific outlook directly supports the market’s heavy weighting on 30 °C (49 %) as the modal outcome, followed by 29 °C and 31 °C (both ~21.5 %), while lower and higher bins reflect lower implied probabilities consistent with the narrow forecast spread. Updated model runs and official agency guidance through August 1 continue to anchor trader consensus ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 2?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 2?
30°C 49%
31°C 22%
29°C 21%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
3%
27°C
3%
28°C
6%
29°C
21%
30°C
49%
31°C
22%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
2%
30°C 49%
31°C 22%
29°C 21%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
23°C or below
$1,039 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,050 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$544 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$716 Vol.
3%
27°C
$367 Vol.
3%
28°C
$188 Vol.
6%
29°C
$642 Vol.
21%
30°C
$800 Vol.
49%
31°C
$847 Vol.
22%
32°C
$202 Vol.
3%
33°C or higher
$190 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range forecasts from meteorological agencies and models position Moscow’s August 2 daytime high near 29–30 °C, with limited upside potential to 31 °C under partly cloudy skies and light winds that restrict stronger daytime heating. Model consensus emphasizes modest advection of warmer air without significant synoptic support for rapid warming, keeping temperatures clustered around these values rather than extremes. This scientific outlook directly supports the market’s heavy weighting on 30 °C (49 %) as the modal outcome, followed by 29 °C and 31 °C (both ~21.5 %), while lower and higher bins reflect lower implied probabilities consistent with the narrow forecast spread. Updated model runs and official agency guidance through August 1 continue to anchor trader consensus ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$6,585End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range forecasts from meteorological agencies and models position Moscow’s August 2 daytime high near 29–30 °C, with limited upside potential to 31 °C under partly cloudy skies and light winds that restrict stronger daytime heating. Model consensus emphasizes modest advection of warmer air without significant synoptic support for rapid warming, keeping temperatures clustered around these values rather than extremes. This scientific outlook directly supports the market’s heavy weighting on 30 °C (49 %) as the modal outcome, followed by 29 °C and 31 °C (both ~21.5 %), while lower and higher bins reflect lower implied probabilities consistent with the narrow forecast spread. Updated model runs and official agency guidance through August 1 continue to anchor trader consensus ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,585End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-range forecasts from meteorological agencies and models position Moscow’s August 2 daytime high near 29–30 °C, with limited upside potential to 31 °C under partly cloudy skies and light winds that restrict stronger daytime heating. Model consensus emphasizes modest advection of warmer air without significant synoptic support for rapid warming, keeping temperatures clustered around these values rather than extremes. This scientific outlook directly supports the market’s heavy weighting on 30 °C (49 %) as the modal outcome, followed by 29 °C and 31 °C (both ~21.5 %), while lower and higher bins reflect lower implied probabilities consistent with the narrow forecast spread. Updated model runs and official agency guidance through August 1 continue to anchor trader consensus ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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