Recent forecast models point to a high near 25°C in Chengdu on August 2, driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers tied to the East Asian monsoon pattern that limits daytime heating. In Chengdu’s humid subtropical climate, these conditions typically cap temperatures 3–5°C below clear-sky August norms of 30–32°C by reducing incoming solar radiation and enhancing evaporative cooling from rainfall. Slight differences among ensemble runs—particularly the timing and coverage of precipitation—account for the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 24–26°C, while stronger or weaker monsoon influences could push outcomes toward the lower or higher tails. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration will refine these details ahead of resolution.