Forecast uncertainty around convective activity and cloud cover primarily drives the tight clustering of trader sentiment around 35–37°C for Chengdu's August 11 peak temperature. Recent model runs show variability in thunderstorm timing and intensity, which can suppress daytime heating through increased albedo and evaporative cooling while high humidity and urban heat island effects sustain elevated readings. Historical August baselines near 30–32°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C under clear subtropical high pressure, contextualize the market-implied odds. Key resolution hinges on official observations, with updates from regional meteorological agencies likely to refine the consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?
36°C 35%
37°C 28%
35°C 25%
38°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
8%
35°C
25%
36°C
35%
37°C
28%
38°C
9%
39°C
2%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
36°C 35%
37°C 28%
35°C 25%
38°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
31°C or below
$639 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$287 Vol.
1%
33°C
$770 Vol.
1%
34°C
$592 Vol.
8%
35°C
$1,337 Vol.
25%
36°C
$431 Vol.
35%
37°C
$1,818 Vol.
28%
38°C
$1,433 Vol.
9%
39°C
$343 Vol.
2%
40°C
$126 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$113 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty around convective activity and cloud cover primarily drives the tight clustering of trader sentiment around 35–37°C for Chengdu's August 11 peak temperature. Recent model runs show variability in thunderstorm timing and intensity, which can suppress daytime heating through increased albedo and evaporative cooling while high humidity and urban heat island effects sustain elevated readings. Historical August baselines near 30–32°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C under clear subtropical high pressure, contextualize the market-implied odds. Key resolution hinges on official observations, with updates from regional meteorological agencies likely to refine the consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$7,716End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty around convective activity and cloud cover primarily drives the tight clustering of trader sentiment around 35–37°C for Chengdu's August 11 peak temperature. Recent model runs show variability in thunderstorm timing and intensity, which can suppress daytime heating through increased albedo and evaporative cooling while high humidity and urban heat island effects sustain elevated readings. Historical August baselines near 30–32°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C under clear subtropical high pressure, contextualize the market-implied odds. Key resolution hinges on official observations, with updates from regional meteorological agencies likely to refine the consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,716End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty around convective activity and cloud cover primarily drives the tight clustering of trader sentiment around 35–37°C for Chengdu's August 11 peak temperature. Recent model runs show variability in thunderstorm timing and intensity, which can suppress daytime heating through increased albedo and evaporative cooling while high humidity and urban heat island effects sustain elevated readings. Historical August baselines near 30–32°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C under clear subtropical high pressure, contextualize the market-implied odds. Key resolution hinges on official observations, with updates from regional meteorological agencies likely to refine the consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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