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icon for Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?

Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?

icon for Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?

Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?

Kai

25% chance
Polymarket
NEW

Kai

25% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon beginning on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it. This market will resolve to "Kai" if Kai Cenat's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than IShowSpeed's individual counter. This market will resolve to "Speed" if IShowSpeed's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than Kai Cenat's individual counter. If the two counters display the same final value, this market will resolve "50-50". This market will resolve based on the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube, when the broadcast of the marathon ends. The values displayed on the counters will be used regardless of how they are calculated. It will not matter whether Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge, nor whether they modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective, adding a player, or playing outside of Hardcore mode. If both individual counters are not displayed at the time IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube ends, this market will resolve according to the most recent counter values available. If the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve according to the counters at that point. The marathon will be considered to have ended if IShowSpeed ends his official broadcast on YouTube and does not resume broadcasting with the individual in-game death counters visible within 12 hours. The resolution source for this market will be the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/@IShowSpeed). Footage from the official broadcasts may also be used to verify the counters.Speed's 71.5% implied probability reflects trader consensus on his consistently more chaotic and impulsive Minecraft playstyle compared to Kai Cenat during their ongoing Hardcore marathon, which launched August 7, 2026. The duo must defeat multiple bosses like the Ender Dragon and Warden in permadeath mode, where any death resets progress, and early reports already showed a restart within the first hour. Historical precedent from their 2024 marathon—42 total deaths over 105 hours—highlights Speed's higher error rate under pressure, driven by aggressive exploration and panic responses to threats. Key catalysts include upcoming high-risk encounters and live stream dynamics that amplify individual mistakes, with no major style shifts reported to alter the edge.

Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon beginning on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it.

This market will resolve to "Kai" if Kai Cenat's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than IShowSpeed's individual counter.

This market will resolve to "Speed" if IShowSpeed's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than Kai Cenat's individual counter.

If the two counters display the same final value, this market will resolve "50-50".

This market will resolve based on the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube, when the broadcast of the marathon ends.

The values displayed on the counters will be used regardless of how they are calculated. It will not matter whether Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge, nor whether they modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective, adding a player, or playing outside of Hardcore mode.

If both individual counters are not displayed at the time IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube ends, this market will resolve according to the most recent counter values available.

If the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve according to the counters at that point.

The marathon will be considered to have ended if IShowSpeed ends his official broadcast on YouTube and does not resume broadcasting with the individual in-game death counters visible within 12 hours.

The resolution source for this market will be the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/@IShowSpeed). Footage from the official broadcasts may also be used to verify the counters.
Volume
$0
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 9:03 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLmJY7SeISw

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon beginning on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it. This market will resolve to "Kai" if Kai Cenat's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than IShowSpeed's individual counter. This market will resolve to "Speed" if IShowSpeed's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than Kai Cenat's individual counter. If the two counters display the same final value, this market will resolve "50-50". This market will resolve based on the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube, when the broadcast of the marathon ends. The values displayed on the counters will be used regardless of how they are calculated. It will not matter whether Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge, nor whether they modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective, adding a player, or playing outside of Hardcore mode. If both individual counters are not displayed at the time IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube ends, this market will resolve according to the most recent counter values available. If the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve according to the counters at that point. The marathon will be considered to have ended if IShowSpeed ends his official broadcast on YouTube and does not resume broadcasting with the individual in-game death counters visible within 12 hours. The resolution source for this market will be the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/@IShowSpeed). Footage from the official broadcasts may also be used to verify the counters.
Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon beginning on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it. This market will resolve to "Kai" if Kai Cenat's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than IShowSpeed's individual counter. This market will resolve to "Speed" if IShowSpeed's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than Kai Cenat's individual counter. If the two counters display the same final value, this market will resolve "50-50". This market will resolve based on the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube, when the broadcast of the marathon ends. The values displayed on the counters will be used regardless of how they are calculated. It will not matter whether Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge, nor whether they modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective, adding a player, or playing outside of Hardcore mode. If both individual counters are not displayed at the time IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube ends, this market will resolve according to the most recent counter values available. If the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve according to the counters at that point. The marathon will be considered to have ended if IShowSpeed ends his official broadcast on YouTube and does not resume broadcasting with the individual in-game death counters visible within 12 hours. The resolution source for this market will be the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/@IShowSpeed). Footage from the official broadcasts may also be used to verify the counters.Speed's 71.5% implied probability reflects trader consensus on his consistently more chaotic and impulsive Minecraft playstyle compared to Kai Cenat during their ongoing Hardcore marathon, which launched August 7, 2026. The duo must defeat multiple bosses like the Ender Dragon and Warden in permadeath mode, where any death resets progress, and early reports already showed a restart within the first hour. Historical precedent from their 2024 marathon—42 total deaths over 105 hours—highlights Speed's higher error rate under pressure, driven by aggressive exploration and panic responses to threats. Key catalysts include upcoming high-risk encounters and live stream dynamics that amplify individual mistakes, with no major style shifts reported to alter the edge.

Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon beginning on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it.

This market will resolve to "Kai" if Kai Cenat's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than IShowSpeed's individual counter.

This market will resolve to "Speed" if IShowSpeed's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than Kai Cenat's individual counter.

If the two counters display the same final value, this market will resolve "50-50".

This market will resolve based on the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube, when the broadcast of the marathon ends.

The values displayed on the counters will be used regardless of how they are calculated. It will not matter whether Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge, nor whether they modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective, adding a player, or playing outside of Hardcore mode.

If both individual counters are not displayed at the time IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube ends, this market will resolve according to the most recent counter values available.

If the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve according to the counters at that point.

The marathon will be considered to have ended if IShowSpeed ends his official broadcast on YouTube and does not resume broadcasting with the individual in-game death counters visible within 12 hours.

The resolution source for this market will be the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/@IShowSpeed). Footage from the official broadcasts may also be used to verify the counters.
Volume
$0
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 9:03 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLmJY7SeISw

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon beginning on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it. This market will resolve to "Kai" if Kai Cenat's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than IShowSpeed's individual counter. This market will resolve to "Speed" if IShowSpeed's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than Kai Cenat's individual counter. If the two counters display the same final value, this market will resolve "50-50". This market will resolve based on the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube, when the broadcast of the marathon ends. The values displayed on the counters will be used regardless of how they are calculated. It will not matter whether Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge, nor whether they modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective, adding a player, or playing outside of Hardcore mode. If both individual counters are not displayed at the time IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube ends, this market will resolve according to the most recent counter values available. If the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve according to the counters at that point. The marathon will be considered to have ended if IShowSpeed ends his official broadcast on YouTube and does not resume broadcasting with the individual in-game death counters visible within 12 hours. The resolution source for this market will be the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/@IShowSpeed). Footage from the official broadcasts may also be used to verify the counters.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?" is "Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.