Elon Musk’s high-volume posting pace on X remains the core driver of trader sentiment for the August 4–11 window, with historical averages of roughly 30 posts per day placing the 200–239 range near the center of market-implied odds. Recent weeks show consistent activity tied to Tesla updates, regulatory developments, and platform governance, producing week-to-week swings of 30–50 tweets depending on news flow and travel. The tight clustering among the top four buckets (180–259) reflects this variability, while thinner odds on extreme tails acknowledge that sustained low or record-high output would require unusual quiet periods or major breaking events. Traders are watching any early-week catalysts that could shift daily cadence before the period locks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedElon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?
Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?
200-219 17%
180-199 15%
220-239 15%
240-259 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
9%
100-119
5%
120-139
5%
140-159
4%
160-179
7%
180-199
15%
200-219
17%
220-239
15%
240-259
14%
260-279
9%
280-299
6%
300-319
8%
320-339
3%
340-359
2%
360-379
1%
380-399
10%
400-419
11%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 17%
180-199 15%
220-239 15%
240-259 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
<20
$1,675 Vol.
<1%
20-39
$1,645 Vol.
<1%
40-59
$1,645 Vol.
<1%
60-79
$836 Vol.
<1%
80-99
$10 Vol.
9%
100-119
$45 Vol.
5%
120-139
$35 Vol.
5%
140-159
$25 Vol.
4%
160-179
$25 Vol.
7%
180-199
$1,228 Vol.
15%
200-219
$30 Vol.
17%
220-239
$30 Vol.
15%
240-259
$74 Vol.
14%
260-279
$25 Vol.
9%
280-299
$45 Vol.
6%
300-319
$87 Vol.
8%
320-339
$438 Vol.
3%
340-359
$596 Vol.
2%
360-379
$180 Vol.
1%
380-399
$10 Vol.
10%
400-419
$10 Vol.
11%
420-439
$187 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$35 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$35 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$135 Vol.
<1%
500+
$156 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s high-volume posting pace on X remains the core driver of trader sentiment for the August 4–11 window, with historical averages of roughly 30 posts per day placing the 200–239 range near the center of market-implied odds. Recent weeks show consistent activity tied to Tesla updates, regulatory developments, and platform governance, producing week-to-week swings of 30–50 tweets depending on news flow and travel. The tight clustering among the top four buckets (180–259) reflects this variability, while thinner odds on extreme tails acknowledge that sustained low or record-high output would require unusual quiet periods or major breaking events. Traders are watching any early-week catalysts that could shift daily cadence before the period locks.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$9,243End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s high-volume posting pace on X remains the core driver of trader sentiment for the August 4–11 window, with historical averages of roughly 30 posts per day placing the 200–239 range near the center of market-implied odds. Recent weeks show consistent activity tied to Tesla updates, regulatory developments, and platform governance, producing week-to-week swings of 30–50 tweets depending on news flow and travel. The tight clustering among the top four buckets (180–259) reflects this variability, while thinner odds on extreme tails acknowledge that sustained low or record-high output would require unusual quiet periods or major breaking events. Traders are watching any early-week catalysts that could shift daily cadence before the period locks.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$9,243End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s high-volume posting pace on X remains the core driver of trader sentiment for the August 4–11 window, with historical averages of roughly 30 posts per day placing the 200–239 range near the center of market-implied odds. Recent weeks show consistent activity tied to Tesla updates, regulatory developments, and platform governance, producing week-to-week swings of 30–50 tweets depending on news flow and travel. The tight clustering among the top four buckets (180–259) reflects this variability, while thinner odds on extreme tails acknowledge that sustained low or record-high output would require unusual quiet periods or major breaking events. Traders are watching any early-week catalysts that could shift daily cadence before the period locks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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