Elon Musk's consistent high-volume posting on X drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 42.5% across the sub-140 tweet ranges for the August 1-3 window. Traders weigh his established pattern of frequent replies, commentary on Tesla and SpaceX developments, and real-time reactions to news against the absence of major scheduled events or platform announcements that typically spike activity. Recent quiet stretches in late July have tempered expectations for outlier volume, while historical three-day bursts during product launches or political cycles keep higher bins like 140-164 in play at lower probabilities. The even distribution reflects uncertainty over short-term variables such as breaking tech industry updates or personal schedule shifts, with resolution hinging on raw post counts through the period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 43%
65-89 29%
<40 17%
90-114 11.5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
<40
17%
40-64
43%
65-89
29%
90-114
12%
115-139
2%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 43%
65-89 29%
<40 17%
90-114 11.5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
<40
$551 Vol.
17%
40-64
$15 Vol.
43%
65-89
$64 Vol.
29%
90-114
$95 Vol.
12%
115-139
$20 Vol.
2%
140-164
$20 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$20 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$20 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$20 Vol.
<1%
240+
$250 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 1 12:00 PM ET to August 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's consistent high-volume posting on X drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 42.5% across the sub-140 tweet ranges for the August 1-3 window. Traders weigh his established pattern of frequent replies, commentary on Tesla and SpaceX developments, and real-time reactions to news against the absence of major scheduled events or platform announcements that typically spike activity. Recent quiet stretches in late July have tempered expectations for outlier volume, while historical three-day bursts during product launches or political cycles keep higher bins like 140-164 in play at lower probabilities. The even distribution reflects uncertainty over short-term variables such as breaking tech industry updates or personal schedule shifts, with resolution hinging on raw post counts through the period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 1 12:00 PM ET to August 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,075End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 1 12:00 PM ET to August 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's consistent high-volume posting on X drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 42.5% across the sub-140 tweet ranges for the August 1-3 window. Traders weigh his established pattern of frequent replies, commentary on Tesla and SpaceX developments, and real-time reactions to news against the absence of major scheduled events or platform announcements that typically spike activity. Recent quiet stretches in late July have tempered expectations for outlier volume, while historical three-day bursts during product launches or political cycles keep higher bins like 140-164 in play at lower probabilities. The even distribution reflects uncertainty over short-term variables such as breaking tech industry updates or personal schedule shifts, with resolution hinging on raw post counts through the period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 1 12:00 PM ET to August 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,075End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's consistent high-volume posting on X drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 42.5% across the sub-140 tweet ranges for the August 1-3 window. Traders weigh his established pattern of frequent replies, commentary on Tesla and SpaceX developments, and real-time reactions to news against the absence of major scheduled events or platform announcements that typically spike activity. Recent quiet stretches in late July have tempered expectations for outlier volume, while historical three-day bursts during product launches or political cycles keep higher bins like 140-164 in play at lower probabilities. The even distribution reflects uncertainty over short-term variables such as breaking tech industry updates or personal schedule shifts, with resolution hinging on raw post counts through the period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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