Official MetService forecasts project a 13°C daily maximum for Wellington on July 31 under showers with northwesterlies shifting southwesterly, consistent with the month’s 13°C average high amid typical winter variability. Market-implied odds edging toward 14°C over 13°C reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, including potential for localized warming from northerly flow or delayed shower onset that could briefly elevate readings by 1°C. Wellington’s coastal exposure and topographic channeling amplify small differences in wind speed, cloud cover, and precipitation timing, while climatological baselines show July maxima rarely exceed 14–15°C without stronger subtropical influence. Updated model runs and official briefings near resolution will clarify whether conditions trend warmer or cooler than the central forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on July 31?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31?
13°C 49%
14°C 39%
12°C 8%
15°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
8%
13°C
49%
14°C
39%
15°C
3%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 49%
14°C 39%
12°C 8%
15°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
8°C or below
$351 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$361 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$15 Vol.
2%
11°C
$34 Vol.
2%
12°C
$65 Vol.
8%
13°C
$185 Vol.
49%
14°C
$418 Vol.
39%
15°C
$75 Vol.
3%
16°C
$60 Vol.
2%
17°C
$15 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$361 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official MetService forecasts project a 13°C daily maximum for Wellington on July 31 under showers with northwesterlies shifting southwesterly, consistent with the month’s 13°C average high amid typical winter variability. Market-implied odds edging toward 14°C over 13°C reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, including potential for localized warming from northerly flow or delayed shower onset that could briefly elevate readings by 1°C. Wellington’s coastal exposure and topographic channeling amplify small differences in wind speed, cloud cover, and precipitation timing, while climatological baselines show July maxima rarely exceed 14–15°C without stronger subtropical influence. Updated model runs and official briefings near resolution will clarify whether conditions trend warmer or cooler than the central forecast.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,904End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official MetService forecasts project a 13°C daily maximum for Wellington on July 31 under showers with northwesterlies shifting southwesterly, consistent with the month’s 13°C average high amid typical winter variability. Market-implied odds edging toward 14°C over 13°C reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, including potential for localized warming from northerly flow or delayed shower onset that could briefly elevate readings by 1°C. Wellington’s coastal exposure and topographic channeling amplify small differences in wind speed, cloud cover, and precipitation timing, while climatological baselines show July maxima rarely exceed 14–15°C without stronger subtropical influence. Updated model runs and official briefings near resolution will clarify whether conditions trend warmer or cooler than the central forecast.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,904End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official MetService forecasts project a 13°C daily maximum for Wellington on July 31 under showers with northwesterlies shifting southwesterly, consistent with the month’s 13°C average high amid typical winter variability. Market-implied odds edging toward 14°C over 13°C reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, including potential for localized warming from northerly flow or delayed shower onset that could briefly elevate readings by 1°C. Wellington’s coastal exposure and topographic channeling amplify small differences in wind speed, cloud cover, and precipitation timing, while climatological baselines show July maxima rarely exceed 14–15°C without stronger subtropical influence. Updated model runs and official briefings near resolution will clarify whether conditions trend warmer or cooler than the central forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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