**Persistent high-pressure ridging over the western Mediterranean, reinforced by subtropical and African anticyclone influences, continues to advect hot, dry air northward into northern Italy, sustaining elevated temperatures across the Po Valley through the end of July.** Clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime insolation are maximizing surface heating, while Milan’s urban heat island effect adds several degrees relative to surrounding rural areas. Recent ensemble guidance from leading models (ECMWF and GFS) shows maximum temperatures clustering in the mid-to-upper 30s °C on July 31, with limited spread that keeps 36 °C and 37 °C as the two most probable outcomes and explains their near-equal market shares. Earlier 2026 European heat episodes have already produced multiple red alerts for Milan and confirmed peaks above 35 °C, providing historical context for the current setup. The market’s tight distribution around these values reflects remaining uncertainty in exact peak timing and any minor model adjustments before the official daily maximum (typically measured at Milano Linate or Malpensa stations) is recorded on July 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on July 31?
Highest temperature in Milan on July 31?
36°C 34%
37°C 33%
38°C 15%
35°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
34°C or below
8%
35°C
12%
36°C
34%
37°C
33%
38°C
15%
39°C
3%
40°C
2%
41°C
2%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
36°C 34%
37°C 33%
38°C 15%
35°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
34°C or below
$172 Vol.
8%
35°C
$0 Vol.
12%
36°C
$149 Vol.
34%
37°C
$17 Vol.
33%
38°C
$23 Vol.
15%
39°C
$0 Vol.
3%
40°C
$11 Vol.
2%
41°C
$263 Vol.
2%
42°C
$5 Vol.
1%
43°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure ridging over the western Mediterranean, reinforced by subtropical and African anticyclone influences, continues to advect hot, dry air northward into northern Italy, sustaining elevated temperatures across the Po Valley through the end of July.**
Clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime insolation are maximizing surface heating, while Milan’s urban heat island effect adds several degrees relative to surrounding rural areas. Recent ensemble guidance from leading models (ECMWF and GFS) shows maximum temperatures clustering in the mid-to-upper 30s °C on July 31, with limited spread that keeps 36 °C and 37 °C as the two most probable outcomes and explains their near-equal market shares.
Earlier 2026 European heat episodes have already produced multiple red alerts for Milan and confirmed peaks above 35 °C, providing historical context for the current setup. The market’s tight distribution around these values reflects remaining uncertainty in exact peak timing and any minor model adjustments before the official daily maximum (typically measured at Milano Linate or Malpensa stations) is recorded on July 31.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$669End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure ridging over the western Mediterranean, reinforced by subtropical and African anticyclone influences, continues to advect hot, dry air northward into northern Italy, sustaining elevated temperatures across the Po Valley through the end of July.**
Clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime insolation are maximizing surface heating, while Milan’s urban heat island effect adds several degrees relative to surrounding rural areas. Recent ensemble guidance from leading models (ECMWF and GFS) shows maximum temperatures clustering in the mid-to-upper 30s °C on July 31, with limited spread that keeps 36 °C and 37 °C as the two most probable outcomes and explains their near-equal market shares.
Earlier 2026 European heat episodes have already produced multiple red alerts for Milan and confirmed peaks above 35 °C, providing historical context for the current setup. The market’s tight distribution around these values reflects remaining uncertainty in exact peak timing and any minor model adjustments before the official daily maximum (typically measured at Milano Linate or Malpensa stations) is recorded on July 31.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$669End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent high-pressure ridging over the western Mediterranean, reinforced by subtropical and African anticyclone influences, continues to advect hot, dry air northward into northern Italy, sustaining elevated temperatures across the Po Valley through the end of July.** Clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime insolation are maximizing surface heating, while Milan’s urban heat island effect adds several degrees relative to surrounding rural areas. Recent ensemble guidance from leading models (ECMWF and GFS) shows maximum temperatures clustering in the mid-to-upper 30s °C on July 31, with limited spread that keeps 36 °C and 37 °C as the two most probable outcomes and explains their near-equal market shares. Earlier 2026 European heat episodes have already produced multiple red alerts for Milan and confirmed peaks above 35 °C, providing historical context for the current setup. The market’s tight distribution around these values reflects remaining uncertainty in exact peak timing and any minor model adjustments before the official daily maximum (typically measured at Milano Linate or Malpensa stations) is recorded on July 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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