Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?
27°C 42%
26°C 28%
28°C 19%
25°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
4%
24°C
3%
25°C
12%
26°C
28%
27°C
42%
28°C
19%
29°C
9%
30°C
3%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
1%
27°C 42%
26°C 28%
28°C 19%
25°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
22°C or below
$32 Vol.
1%
23°C
$43 Vol.
4%
24°C
$22 Vol.
3%
25°C
$0 Vol.
12%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$45 Vol.
42%
28°C
$0 Vol.
19%
29°C
$0 Vol.
9%
30°C
$8 Vol.
3%
31°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$207End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$207End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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