Traders see the tight spread between 23–27°C as reflecting model uncertainty in Seoul’s overnight minimum for July 31, driven by variable cloud cover, humidity, and potential monsoon or frontal influences that modulate radiative cooling. Recent ensemble runs from global and regional models show modest disagreement on low-level moisture and wind speed, which can shift the daily minimum by 1–3 °C. With Seoul’s urban heat-island effect and typical July climatology favoring lows near 24–26 °C, the market prices capture both the baseline expectation and the risk of slightly cooler air advection or clearer skies that would allow stronger nocturnal cooling. Updated short-range forecasts and any new precipitation signals over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for price movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on July 31?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 31?
26°C 34%
27°C 23%
25°C 22%
23°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
9%
24°C
9%
25°C
22%
26°C
34%
27°C
23%
28°C
8%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
26°C 34%
27°C 23%
25°C 22%
23°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
21°C or below
$37 Vol.
2%
22°C
$7 Vol.
2%
23°C
$1 Vol.
9%
24°C
$52 Vol.
9%
25°C
$25 Vol.
22%
26°C
$45 Vol.
34%
27°C
$1 Vol.
23%
28°C
$17 Vol.
8%
29°C
$32 Vol.
1%
30°C
$32 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$32 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tight spread between 23–27°C as reflecting model uncertainty in Seoul’s overnight minimum for July 31, driven by variable cloud cover, humidity, and potential monsoon or frontal influences that modulate radiative cooling. Recent ensemble runs from global and regional models show modest disagreement on low-level moisture and wind speed, which can shift the daily minimum by 1–3 °C. With Seoul’s urban heat-island effect and typical July climatology favoring lows near 24–26 °C, the market prices capture both the baseline expectation and the risk of slightly cooler air advection or clearer skies that would allow stronger nocturnal cooling. Updated short-range forecasts and any new precipitation signals over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for price movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$280End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tight spread between 23–27°C as reflecting model uncertainty in Seoul’s overnight minimum for July 31, driven by variable cloud cover, humidity, and potential monsoon or frontal influences that modulate radiative cooling. Recent ensemble runs from global and regional models show modest disagreement on low-level moisture and wind speed, which can shift the daily minimum by 1–3 °C. With Seoul’s urban heat-island effect and typical July climatology favoring lows near 24–26 °C, the market prices capture both the baseline expectation and the risk of slightly cooler air advection or clearer skies that would allow stronger nocturnal cooling. Updated short-range forecasts and any new precipitation signals over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for price movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$280End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the tight spread between 23–27°C as reflecting model uncertainty in Seoul’s overnight minimum for July 31, driven by variable cloud cover, humidity, and potential monsoon or frontal influences that modulate radiative cooling. Recent ensemble runs from global and regional models show modest disagreement on low-level moisture and wind speed, which can shift the daily minimum by 1–3 °C. With Seoul’s urban heat-island effect and typical July climatology favoring lows near 24–26 °C, the market prices capture both the baseline expectation and the risk of slightly cooler air advection or clearer skies that would allow stronger nocturnal cooling. Updated short-range forecasts and any new precipitation signals over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for price movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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