**Recent model consensus from sources like the BBC and European forecasts points to a peak high near 38°C in Madrid on July 31, 2026, under persistent high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light southwesterly winds that maximize daytime solar heating while limiting cloud cover or cooling.** This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 38°C (47%) over 37°C (28.5%) or 39°C (25%), reflecting tight spreads driven by ensemble variability in exact maximum timing and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Madrid has already recorded daily highs of 38°C in recent days amid a broader Iberian heatwave, with July climatology showing typical maxima around 32–34°C but current conditions pushing 3–6°C above average. Key resolution factors include the official maximum reported by AEMET or equivalent monitoring, with minimal precipitation expected to keep temperatures elevated; updated runs from GFS and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the 37–39°C window as landfall timing and steering patterns clarify. Traders appear to weigh the strong consensus for peak heat against realistic model divergence typical this close to the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on July 31?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31?
38°C 49%
37°C 31%
39°C 16%
40°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
35°C or below
2%
36°C
3%
37°C
31%
38°C
49%
39°C
16%
40°C
4%
41°C
3%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
38°C 49%
37°C 31%
39°C 16%
40°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
35°C or below
$156 Vol.
2%
36°C
$111 Vol.
3%
37°C
$1,774 Vol.
31%
38°C
$1,653 Vol.
49%
39°C
$270 Vol.
16%
40°C
$344 Vol.
4%
41°C
$384 Vol.
3%
42°C
$131 Vol.
1%
43°C
$350 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$240 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$404 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from sources like the BBC and European forecasts points to a peak high near 38°C in Madrid on July 31, 2026, under persistent high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light southwesterly winds that maximize daytime solar heating while limiting cloud cover or cooling.**
This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 38°C (47%) over 37°C (28.5%) or 39°C (25%), reflecting tight spreads driven by ensemble variability in exact maximum timing and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Madrid has already recorded daily highs of 38°C in recent days amid a broader Iberian heatwave, with July climatology showing typical maxima around 32–34°C but current conditions pushing 3–6°C above average.
Key resolution factors include the official maximum reported by AEMET or equivalent monitoring, with minimal precipitation expected to keep temperatures elevated; updated runs from GFS and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the 37–39°C window as landfall timing and steering patterns clarify. Traders appear to weigh the strong consensus for peak heat against realistic model divergence typical this close to the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$5,786End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from sources like the BBC and European forecasts points to a peak high near 38°C in Madrid on July 31, 2026, under persistent high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light southwesterly winds that maximize daytime solar heating while limiting cloud cover or cooling.**
This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 38°C (47%) over 37°C (28.5%) or 39°C (25%), reflecting tight spreads driven by ensemble variability in exact maximum timing and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Madrid has already recorded daily highs of 38°C in recent days amid a broader Iberian heatwave, with July climatology showing typical maxima around 32–34°C but current conditions pushing 3–6°C above average.
Key resolution factors include the official maximum reported by AEMET or equivalent monitoring, with minimal precipitation expected to keep temperatures elevated; updated runs from GFS and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the 37–39°C window as landfall timing and steering patterns clarify. Traders appear to weigh the strong consensus for peak heat against realistic model divergence typical this close to the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,786End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model consensus from sources like the BBC and European forecasts points to a peak high near 38°C in Madrid on July 31, 2026, under persistent high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light southwesterly winds that maximize daytime solar heating while limiting cloud cover or cooling.** This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 38°C (47%) over 37°C (28.5%) or 39°C (25%), reflecting tight spreads driven by ensemble variability in exact maximum timing and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Madrid has already recorded daily highs of 38°C in recent days amid a broader Iberian heatwave, with July climatology showing typical maxima around 32–34°C but current conditions pushing 3–6°C above average. Key resolution factors include the official maximum reported by AEMET or equivalent monitoring, with minimal precipitation expected to keep temperatures elevated; updated runs from GFS and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the 37–39°C window as landfall timing and steering patterns clarify. Traders appear to weigh the strong consensus for peak heat against realistic model divergence typical this close to the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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