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icon for Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Over/Under 19%?
Politics·Sweden

Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Over/Under 19%?

icon for Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Over/Under 19%?
Politics·Sweden

Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Over/Under 19%?

Over

70% chance
Polymarket
NEW

Over

70% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling from firms including Novus, Indikator Opinion, and Demoskop through August 2026 places Sweden Democrats support between 19.2% and 20.4%, close to the 20.5% achieved in 2022 and straddling the 19% threshold. The party's position as the second-largest by vote share persists amid a left-bloc lead in overall parliamentary intentions, with the right-leaning Tidö grouping facing challenges in consolidating support. Stable trends over recent months, combined with the approaching September 13 election date, underpin trader assessments of the probability that SD exceeds 19%. Factors such as voter turnout patterns and any late shifts in migration or coalition dynamics could still influence the final result.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$41
End Date
Sep 13, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling from firms including Novus, Indikator Opinion, and Demoskop through August 2026 places Sweden Democrats support between 19.2% and 20.4%, close to the 20.5% achieved in 2022 and straddling the 19% threshold. The party's position as the second-largest by vote share persists amid a left-bloc lead in overall parliamentary intentions, with the right-leaning Tidö grouping facing challenges in consolidating support. Stable trends over recent months, combined with the approaching September 13 election date, underpin trader assessments of the probability that SD exceeds 19%. Factors such as voter turnout patterns and any late shifts in migration or coalition dynamics could still influence the final result.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$41
End Date
Sep 13, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Over/Under 19%?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Over/Under 19%?" at 70%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Over/Under 19%?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Over/Under 19%?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Over/Under 19%?" is "Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Over/Under 19%?" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Over/Under 19%?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.