**Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election show Miljöpartiet (MP) and Kristdemokraterna (KD) both polling in the narrow 6–7.5% range, with MP holding a modest average edge in several surveys released in July and early August.** This positioning underpins the 64% trader-implied probability that MP will receive more votes. Both parties remain small players—MP aligned with the centre-left opposition bloc and KD part of the centre-right Tidö governing arrangement—yet their relative support has fluctuated modestly amid broader left-bloc gains in national polling. No single high-impact event has sharply differentiated the two in the past month, leaving the narrow polling gap and historical precedent from the 2022 results (where the parties finished within 0.2 percentage points) as the primary drivers of current market consensus. Traders appear to price in continued stability or slight momentum for MP ahead of the final campaign period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMP
64% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
MP
64% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “MP” if Green Party (MP) wins more valid votes than Christian Democrats (KD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “KD” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins more valid votes than Green Party (MP) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Green Party (MP) and Christian Democrats (KD) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election show Miljöpartiet (MP) and Kristdemokraterna (KD) both polling in the narrow 6–7.5% range, with MP holding a modest average edge in several surveys released in July and early August.**
This positioning underpins the 64% trader-implied probability that MP will receive more votes. Both parties remain small players—MP aligned with the centre-left opposition bloc and KD part of the centre-right Tidö governing arrangement—yet their relative support has fluctuated modestly amid broader left-bloc gains in national polling. No single high-impact event has sharply differentiated the two in the past month, leaving the narrow polling gap and historical precedent from the 2022 results (where the parties finished within 0.2 percentage points) as the primary drivers of current market consensus. Traders appear to price in continued stability or slight momentum for MP ahead of the final campaign period.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “MP” if Green Party (MP) wins more valid votes than Christian Democrats (KD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “KD” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins more valid votes than Green Party (MP) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Green Party (MP) and Christian Democrats (KD) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “MP” if Green Party (MP) wins more valid votes than Christian Democrats (KD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “KD” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins more valid votes than Green Party (MP) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Green Party (MP) and Christian Democrats (KD) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:33 AM ET
Volume
$42End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:33 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “MP” if Green Party (MP) wins more valid votes than Christian Democrats (KD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “KD” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins more valid votes than Green Party (MP) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Green Party (MP) and Christian Democrats (KD) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election show Miljöpartiet (MP) and Kristdemokraterna (KD) both polling in the narrow 6–7.5% range, with MP holding a modest average edge in several surveys released in July and early August.**
This positioning underpins the 64% trader-implied probability that MP will receive more votes. Both parties remain small players—MP aligned with the centre-left opposition bloc and KD part of the centre-right Tidö governing arrangement—yet their relative support has fluctuated modestly amid broader left-bloc gains in national polling. No single high-impact event has sharply differentiated the two in the past month, leaving the narrow polling gap and historical precedent from the 2022 results (where the parties finished within 0.2 percentage points) as the primary drivers of current market consensus. Traders appear to price in continued stability or slight momentum for MP ahead of the final campaign period.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “MP” if Green Party (MP) wins more valid votes than Christian Democrats (KD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “KD” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins more valid votes than Green Party (MP) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Green Party (MP) and Christian Democrats (KD) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “MP” if Green Party (MP) wins more valid votes than Christian Democrats (KD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “KD” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins more valid votes than Green Party (MP) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Green Party (MP) and Christian Democrats (KD) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$42End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:33 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election show Miljöpartiet (MP) and Kristdemokraterna (KD) both polling in the narrow 6–7.5% range, with MP holding a modest average edge in several surveys released in July and early August.** This positioning underpins the 64% trader-implied probability that MP will receive more votes. Both parties remain small players—MP aligned with the centre-left opposition bloc and KD part of the centre-right Tidö governing arrangement—yet their relative support has fluctuated modestly amid broader left-bloc gains in national polling. No single high-impact event has sharply differentiated the two in the past month, leaving the narrow polling gap and historical precedent from the 2022 results (where the parties finished within 0.2 percentage points) as the primary drivers of current market consensus. Traders appear to price in continued stability or slight momentum for MP ahead of the final campaign period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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