**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** posted a record-shattering $168 million domestic opening day on July 31, the highest first-day gross in history and well above the previous mark set by Avengers: Endgame. Massive advance buzz, $72 million in previews that also broke records, and strong critical reception fueled exceptional presales and walk-up business across 4,487 theaters. Industry tracking had long pointed to a $160–170 million Friday, and the actual figure landed cleanly inside the 167–172 million band. With final numbers now confirmed and little room for material revision, the market-implied 98% probability on that range reflects locked-in data rather than speculation. An upset into adjacent buckets would require either significant reporting adjustments or a redefinition of “opening day,” both low-probability scenarios given standard studio and tracking methodologies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office (Higher Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office (Higher Strikes)
167-172m 97.7%
162-167m 2.6%
182m+ 2.6%
157-162m <1%
$12,394 Vol.
$12,394 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<152m
<1%
152-157m
<1%
157-162m
1%
162-167m
3%
167-172m
98%
172-177m
<1%
177-182m
<1%
182m+
3%
167-172m 97.7%
162-167m 2.6%
182m+ 2.6%
157-162m <1%
$12,394 Vol.
$12,394 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<152m
$369 Vol.
<1%
152-157m
$408 Vol.
<1%
157-162m
$455 Vol.
1%
162-167m
$3,852 Vol.
3%
167-172m
$5,050 Vol.
98%
172-177m
$1,587 Vol.
<1%
177-182m
$243 Vol.
<1%
182m+
$429 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Daily Box Office will gross domestically on July 31. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for July 31 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** posted a record-shattering $168 million domestic opening day on July 31, the highest first-day gross in history and well above the previous mark set by Avengers: Endgame. Massive advance buzz, $72 million in previews that also broke records, and strong critical reception fueled exceptional presales and walk-up business across 4,487 theaters. Industry tracking had long pointed to a $160–170 million Friday, and the actual figure landed cleanly inside the 167–172 million band. With final numbers now confirmed and little room for material revision, the market-implied 98% probability on that range reflects locked-in data rather than speculation. An upset into adjacent buckets would require either significant reporting adjustments or a redefinition of “opening day,” both low-probability scenarios given standard studio and tracking methodologies.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Daily Box Office will gross domestically on July 31. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for July 31 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 11:55 AM ET
Volume
$12,394End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 11:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Daily Box Office will gross domestically on July 31. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for July 31 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** posted a record-shattering $168 million domestic opening day on July 31, the highest first-day gross in history and well above the previous mark set by Avengers: Endgame. Massive advance buzz, $72 million in previews that also broke records, and strong critical reception fueled exceptional presales and walk-up business across 4,487 theaters. Industry tracking had long pointed to a $160–170 million Friday, and the actual figure landed cleanly inside the 167–172 million band. With final numbers now confirmed and little room for material revision, the market-implied 98% probability on that range reflects locked-in data rather than speculation. An upset into adjacent buckets would require either significant reporting adjustments or a redefinition of “opening day,” both low-probability scenarios given standard studio and tracking methodologies.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Daily Box Office will gross domestically on July 31. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for July 31 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$12,394End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 11:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** posted a record-shattering $168 million domestic opening day on July 31, the highest first-day gross in history and well above the previous mark set by Avengers: Endgame. Massive advance buzz, $72 million in previews that also broke records, and strong critical reception fueled exceptional presales and walk-up business across 4,487 theaters. Industry tracking had long pointed to a $160–170 million Friday, and the actual figure landed cleanly inside the 167–172 million band. With final numbers now confirmed and little room for material revision, the market-implied 98% probability on that range reflects locked-in data rather than speculation. An upset into adjacent buckets would require either significant reporting adjustments or a redefinition of “opening day,” both low-probability scenarios given standard studio and tracking methodologies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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