Record previews exceeding $72 million and a $168 million opening day have driven trader consensus toward a 350-360 million domestic debut for Spider-Man: Brand New Day, positioning it as the second-biggest North American launch ever behind only Avengers: Endgame. Strong presales, premium format demand, and comparisons to Spider-Man: No Way Home’s $260 million start have fueled upward revisions, though Sony’s conservative internal calls and a potentially softer Sunday drop keep the 360-370 million bucket as a meaningful secondary outcome. Sunday performance and final weekend adjustments remain the key swing factors for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office (Even Higher Strikes)
350-360m 85.3%
360-370m 13.4%
<350m 1.6%
370-380m <1%
$230,968 Vol.
$230,968 Vol.
<350m
2%
350-360m
85%
360-370m
13%
370-380m
1%
380-390m
<1%
390-400m
<1%
400-410m
<1%
410-420m
<1%
420m+
<1%
350-360m 85.3%
360-370m 13.4%
<350m 1.6%
370-380m <1%
$230,968 Vol.
$230,968 Vol.
<350m
2%
350-360m
85%
360-370m
13%
370-380m
1%
380-390m
<1%
390-400m
<1%
400-410m
<1%
410-420m
<1%
420m+
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Record previews exceeding $72 million and a $168 million opening day have driven trader consensus toward a 350-360 million domestic debut for Spider-Man: Brand New Day, positioning it as the second-biggest North American launch ever behind only Avengers: Endgame. Strong presales, premium format demand, and comparisons to Spider-Man: No Way Home’s $260 million start have fueled upward revisions, though Sony’s conservative internal calls and a potentially softer Sunday drop keep the 360-370 million bucket as a meaningful secondary outcome. Sunday performance and final weekend adjustments remain the key swing factors for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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