Strong pre-release tracking, massive presales, and sustained fan enthusiasm position Spider-Man: Brand New Day to challenge Avengers: Endgame’s all-time $357 million domestic opening weekend record, underpinning the 76.5% market-implied probability for a “Yes” outcome. The July 31, 2026 release arrives amid peak summer blockbuster season with Tom Holland’s established draw, Jon Bernthal’s Punisher cameo adding crossover appeal, and a 90% Rotten Tomatoes score reflecting solid early critical and audience reception. Trailer views and booking-site interest exceeding one million signal robust word-of-mouth momentum comparable to prior Spider-Man entries like No Way Home, while limited direct competition this frame supports elevated per-theater averages. Traders weigh these indicators against historical MCU ceiling effects and potential front-loaded performance, with the coming days’ actual grosses serving as the decisive catalyst for any late shifts in consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?
$110,929 Vol.
$110,929 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
$110,929 Vol.
$110,929 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong pre-release tracking, massive presales, and sustained fan enthusiasm position Spider-Man: Brand New Day to challenge Avengers: Endgame’s all-time $357 million domestic opening weekend record, underpinning the 76.5% market-implied probability for a “Yes” outcome. The July 31, 2026 release arrives amid peak summer blockbuster season with Tom Holland’s established draw, Jon Bernthal’s Punisher cameo adding crossover appeal, and a 90% Rotten Tomatoes score reflecting solid early critical and audience reception. Trailer views and booking-site interest exceeding one million signal robust word-of-mouth momentum comparable to prior Spider-Man entries like No Way Home, while limited direct competition this frame supports elevated per-theater averages. Traders weigh these indicators against historical MCU ceiling effects and potential front-loaded performance, with the coming days’ actual grosses serving as the decisive catalyst for any late shifts in consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ET
Volume
$110,929End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong pre-release tracking, massive presales, and sustained fan enthusiasm position Spider-Man: Brand New Day to challenge Avengers: Endgame’s all-time $357 million domestic opening weekend record, underpinning the 76.5% market-implied probability for a “Yes” outcome. The July 31, 2026 release arrives amid peak summer blockbuster season with Tom Holland’s established draw, Jon Bernthal’s Punisher cameo adding crossover appeal, and a 90% Rotten Tomatoes score reflecting solid early critical and audience reception. Trailer views and booking-site interest exceeding one million signal robust word-of-mouth momentum comparable to prior Spider-Man entries like No Way Home, while limited direct competition this frame supports elevated per-theater averages. Traders weigh these indicators against historical MCU ceiling effects and potential front-loaded performance, with the coming days’ actual grosses serving as the decisive catalyst for any late shifts in consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$110,929End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong pre-release tracking, massive presales, and sustained fan enthusiasm position Spider-Man: Brand New Day to challenge Avengers: Endgame’s all-time $357 million domestic opening weekend record, underpinning the 76.5% market-implied probability for a “Yes” outcome. The July 31, 2026 release arrives amid peak summer blockbuster season with Tom Holland’s established draw, Jon Bernthal’s Punisher cameo adding crossover appeal, and a 90% Rotten Tomatoes score reflecting solid early critical and audience reception. Trailer views and booking-site interest exceeding one million signal robust word-of-mouth momentum comparable to prior Spider-Man entries like No Way Home, while limited direct competition this frame supports elevated per-theater averages. Traders weigh these indicators against historical MCU ceiling effects and potential front-loaded performance, with the coming days’ actual grosses serving as the decisive catalyst for any late shifts in consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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