Ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on implementing and extending the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which outlined a 60-day framework for addressing the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear program, and regional tensions. As of mid-August 2026, President Trump has described indirect talks via intermediaries such as Oman as active and a "last chance" for a deal, while Tehran denies formal bilateral negotiations and emphasizes discussions solely with Oman. Mediators including Pakistan and Qatar have reported progress toward arrangements, with technical talks previously held in Switzerland. Key variables for any additional rounds by year-end include verification of ceasefire compliance, asset releases, and navigation freedoms, all subject to rapid shifts from military posturing or third-party facilitation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
$26,165 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Abbas Araghchi
69%
Steve Witkoff
67%
Jared Kushner
65%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
58%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
36%
Nick Stewart
36%
J.D. Vance
31%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
30%
Kazem Gharibabadi
27%
Ishaq Dar
25%
Rafael Grossi
20%
Masoud Pezeshkian
20%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
23%
Marco Rubio
17%
Donald Trump
12%
Esmail Qaani
8%
Pete Hegseth
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
Ahmad Vahidi
43%
$26,165 Vol.
Abbas Araghchi
$97 Vol.
69%
Steve Witkoff
$327 Vol.
67%
Jared Kushner
$190 Vol.
65%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$60 Vol.
58%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$20 Vol.
36%
Nick Stewart
$20 Vol.
36%
J.D. Vance
$40 Vol.
31%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$838 Vol.
30%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$793 Vol.
27%
Ishaq Dar
$892 Vol.
25%
Rafael Grossi
$37 Vol.
20%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$40 Vol.
20%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$939 Vol.
23%
Marco Rubio
$40 Vol.
17%
Donald Trump
$59 Vol.
12%
Esmail Qaani
$1,211 Vol.
8%
Pete Hegseth
$1,723 Vol.
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$18,814 Vol.
5%
Ahmad Vahidi
$25 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on implementing and extending the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which outlined a 60-day framework for addressing the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear program, and regional tensions. As of mid-August 2026, President Trump has described indirect talks via intermediaries such as Oman as active and a "last chance" for a deal, while Tehran denies formal bilateral negotiations and emphasizes discussions solely with Oman. Mediators including Pakistan and Qatar have reported progress toward arrangements, with technical talks previously held in Switzerland. Key variables for any additional rounds by year-end include verification of ceasefire compliance, asset releases, and navigation freedoms, all subject to rapid shifts from military posturing or third-party facilitation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$26,165End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on implementing and extending the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which outlined a 60-day framework for addressing the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear program, and regional tensions. As of mid-August 2026, President Trump has described indirect talks via intermediaries such as Oman as active and a "last chance" for a deal, while Tehran denies formal bilateral negotiations and emphasizes discussions solely with Oman. Mediators including Pakistan and Qatar have reported progress toward arrangements, with technical talks previously held in Switzerland. Key variables for any additional rounds by year-end include verification of ceasefire compliance, asset releases, and navigation freedoms, all subject to rapid shifts from military posturing or third-party facilitation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$26,165End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on implementing and extending the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which outlined a 60-day framework for addressing the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear program, and regional tensions. As of mid-August 2026, President Trump has described indirect talks via intermediaries such as Oman as active and a "last chance" for a deal, while Tehran denies formal bilateral negotiations and emphasizes discussions solely with Oman. Mediators including Pakistan and Qatar have reported progress toward arrangements, with technical talks previously held in Switzerland. Key variables for any additional rounds by year-end include verification of ceasefire compliance, asset releases, and navigation freedoms, all subject to rapid shifts from military posturing or third-party facilitation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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