Elevated crude oil prices, driven by Middle East instability and volatility around the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant force pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages above $4.09 per gallon as of late July 2026. Summer driving demand has tightened inventories faster than seasonal norms, with stocks projected near multi-year lows by late August absent supply relief. Refinery margins and Gulf Coast output also factor into pump prices, while upcoming weekly EIA reports and any de-escalation signals could shift the near-term trajectory. Traders monitor these inputs closely as post-Labor Day demand typically eases, influencing whether prices sustain current levels through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Aug 31, 2026
↑ $5.00
10%
↑ $4.75
17%
↑ $4.50
44%
↑ $4.25
74%
↓ $3.90
50%
↓ $3.70
47%
↓ $3.50
13%
↓ $3.25
9%
↓ $3.00
9%
↓ $2.50
5%
$1,445 Vol.
↑ $5.00
$83 Vol.
10%
↑ $4.75
$0 Vol.
17%
↑ $4.50
$124 Vol.
44%
↑ $4.25
$193 Vol.
74%
↓ $3.90
$102 Vol.
50%
↓ $3.70
$725 Vol.
47%
↓ $3.50
$0 Vol.
13%
↓ $3.25
$0 Vol.
9%
↓ $3.00
$0 Vol.
9%
↓ $2.50
$218 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Elevated crude oil prices, driven by Middle East instability and volatility around the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant force pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages above $4.09 per gallon as of late July 2026. Summer driving demand has tightened inventories faster than seasonal norms, with stocks projected near multi-year lows by late August absent supply relief. Refinery margins and Gulf Coast output also factor into pump prices, while upcoming weekly EIA reports and any de-escalation signals could shift the near-term trajectory. Traders monitor these inputs closely as post-Labor Day demand typically eases, influencing whether prices sustain current levels through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ET
Volume
$1,445End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://gasprices.aaa.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Elevated crude oil prices, driven by Middle East instability and volatility around the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant force pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages above $4.09 per gallon as of late July 2026. Summer driving demand has tightened inventories faster than seasonal norms, with stocks projected near multi-year lows by late August absent supply relief. Refinery margins and Gulf Coast output also factor into pump prices, while upcoming weekly EIA reports and any de-escalation signals could shift the near-term trajectory. Traders monitor these inputs closely as post-Labor Day demand typically eases, influencing whether prices sustain current levels through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$1,445End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://gasprices.aaa.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated crude oil prices, driven by Middle East instability and volatility around the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant force pushing U.S. retail gasoline averages above $4.09 per gallon as of late July 2026. Summer driving demand has tightened inventories faster than seasonal norms, with stocks projected near multi-year lows by late August absent supply relief. Refinery margins and Gulf Coast output also factor into pump prices, while upcoming weekly EIA reports and any de-escalation signals could shift the near-term trajectory. Traders monitor these inputs closely as post-Labor Day demand typically eases, influencing whether prices sustain current levels through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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