Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping, combined with attacks on Red Sea oil facilities in late July 2026, have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily commodity vessel counts dropping to as low as 11 before partial rebounds to the low 30s. These developments, tied to broader Iran-related escalations, have elevated maritime risk premiums, prompted rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and compressed volumes below pre-conflict norms of roughly 70 daily transits. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between the 25-29 and 30-34 bins, traders weigh the potential for modest stabilization against further volatility from enforcement actions or de-escalation, as freight rates and insurance costs remain sensitive to any shifts in Houthi signaling or naval presence through end-August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
30-34 37%
25-29 33%
35-39 16%
<25 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<25
9%
25-29
33%
30-34
37%
35-39
16%
40+
12%
30-34 37%
25-29 33%
35-39 16%
<25 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$125 Vol.
9%
25-29
$200 Vol.
33%
30-34
$244 Vol.
37%
35-39
$100 Vol.
16%
40+
$43 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping, combined with attacks on Red Sea oil facilities in late July 2026, have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily commodity vessel counts dropping to as low as 11 before partial rebounds to the low 30s. These developments, tied to broader Iran-related escalations, have elevated maritime risk premiums, prompted rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and compressed volumes below pre-conflict norms of roughly 70 daily transits. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between the 25-29 and 30-34 bins, traders weigh the potential for modest stabilization against further volatility from enforcement actions or de-escalation, as freight rates and insurance costs remain sensitive to any shifts in Houthi signaling or naval presence through end-August.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$712End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping, combined with attacks on Red Sea oil facilities in late July 2026, have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily commodity vessel counts dropping to as low as 11 before partial rebounds to the low 30s. These developments, tied to broader Iran-related escalations, have elevated maritime risk premiums, prompted rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and compressed volumes below pre-conflict norms of roughly 70 daily transits. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between the 25-29 and 30-34 bins, traders weigh the potential for modest stabilization against further volatility from enforcement actions or de-escalation, as freight rates and insurance costs remain sensitive to any shifts in Houthi signaling or naval presence through end-August.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$712End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping, combined with attacks on Red Sea oil facilities in late July 2026, have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily commodity vessel counts dropping to as low as 11 before partial rebounds to the low 30s. These developments, tied to broader Iran-related escalations, have elevated maritime risk premiums, prompted rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and compressed volumes below pre-conflict norms of roughly 70 daily transits. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between the 25-29 and 30-34 bins, traders weigh the potential for modest stabilization against further volatility from enforcement actions or de-escalation, as freight rates and insurance costs remain sensitive to any shifts in Houthi signaling or naval presence through end-August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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