Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions in 2026, centered on Kharg Island's role handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment in this market. Repeated U.S. strikes on military targets, port blockades, and explicit threats to seize the island or other Hormuz-adjacent facilities have introduced a geopolitical risk premium into oil benchmarks, with Brent and WTI futures exhibiting sharp volatility tied directly to Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty over whether limited raids will evolve into sustained occupation, amid Iranian countermeasures and potential supply shocks equivalent to multiple million barrels per day. Upcoming catalysts include further FOMC or Treasury yield movements sensitive to energy inflation and any escalation ahead of seasonal demand peaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
45%
September 30
49%
$0.00 Vol.
August 31
$0 Vol.
45%
September 30
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions in 2026, centered on Kharg Island's role handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment in this market. Repeated U.S. strikes on military targets, port blockades, and explicit threats to seize the island or other Hormuz-adjacent facilities have introduced a geopolitical risk premium into oil benchmarks, with Brent and WTI futures exhibiting sharp volatility tied directly to Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty over whether limited raids will evolve into sustained occupation, amid Iranian countermeasures and potential supply shocks equivalent to multiple million barrels per day. Upcoming catalysts include further FOMC or Treasury yield movements sensitive to energy inflation and any escalation ahead of seasonal demand peaks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions in 2026, centered on Kharg Island's role handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment in this market. Repeated U.S. strikes on military targets, port blockades, and explicit threats to seize the island or other Hormuz-adjacent facilities have introduced a geopolitical risk premium into oil benchmarks, with Brent and WTI futures exhibiting sharp volatility tied directly to Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty over whether limited raids will evolve into sustained occupation, amid Iranian countermeasures and potential supply shocks equivalent to multiple million barrels per day. Upcoming catalysts include further FOMC or Treasury yield movements sensitive to energy inflation and any escalation ahead of seasonal demand peaks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions in 2026, centered on Kharg Island's role handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment in this market. Repeated U.S. strikes on military targets, port blockades, and explicit threats to seize the island or other Hormuz-adjacent facilities have introduced a geopolitical risk premium into oil benchmarks, with Brent and WTI futures exhibiting sharp volatility tied directly to Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty over whether limited raids will evolve into sustained occupation, amid Iranian countermeasures and potential supply shocks equivalent to multiple million barrels per day. Upcoming catalysts include further FOMC or Treasury yield movements sensitive to energy inflation and any escalation ahead of seasonal demand peaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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