Musk’s established posting cadence positions the 40-64 tweet range as the market frontrunner at 44.5% implied probability for the Aug. 3-5 window. Traders reference his documented average of roughly 8-12 posts per day across recent similar three-day markets, which historically produces totals in the low-to-mid range absent major catalysts. Weekday business updates from Tesla, SpaceX, or X platform developments can lift volume modestly without triggering extended threads or political back-and-forth. The closely contested pricing around the 45% mark reflects uncertainty over any last-minute news spikes or quieter personal engagement days, with higher brackets priced far lower due to the absence of confirmed high-intensity events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedElon Musk # tweets August 3 - August 5, 2026?
Elon Musk # tweets August 3 - August 5, 2026?
40-64 45%
65-89 27%
<40 18.5%
90-114 9.2%
NEW
$52,775 Vol.
NEW
$52,775 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
<40
19%
40-64
45%
65-89
27%
90-114
9%
115-139
3%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 45%
65-89 27%
<40 18.5%
90-114 9.2%
NEW
$52,775 Vol.
NEW
$52,775 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
<40
$5,827 Vol.
19%
40-64
$8,240 Vol.
45%
65-89
$7,721 Vol.
27%
90-114
$6,848 Vol.
9%
115-139
$8,730 Vol.
3%
140-164
$6,628 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$2,464 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$4,089 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,115 Vol.
<1%
240+
$1,115 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Musk’s established posting cadence positions the 40-64 tweet range as the market frontrunner at 44.5% implied probability for the Aug. 3-5 window. Traders reference his documented average of roughly 8-12 posts per day across recent similar three-day markets, which historically produces totals in the low-to-mid range absent major catalysts. Weekday business updates from Tesla, SpaceX, or X platform developments can lift volume modestly without triggering extended threads or political back-and-forth. The closely contested pricing around the 45% mark reflects uncertainty over any last-minute news spikes or quieter personal engagement days, with higher brackets priced far lower due to the absence of confirmed high-intensity events.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$52,775End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Musk’s established posting cadence positions the 40-64 tweet range as the market frontrunner at 44.5% implied probability for the Aug. 3-5 window. Traders reference his documented average of roughly 8-12 posts per day across recent similar three-day markets, which historically produces totals in the low-to-mid range absent major catalysts. Weekday business updates from Tesla, SpaceX, or X platform developments can lift volume modestly without triggering extended threads or political back-and-forth. The closely contested pricing around the 45% mark reflects uncertainty over any last-minute news spikes or quieter personal engagement days, with higher brackets priced far lower due to the absence of confirmed high-intensity events.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$52,775End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Musk’s established posting cadence positions the 40-64 tweet range as the market frontrunner at 44.5% implied probability for the Aug. 3-5 window. Traders reference his documented average of roughly 8-12 posts per day across recent similar three-day markets, which historically produces totals in the low-to-mid range absent major catalysts. Weekday business updates from Tesla, SpaceX, or X platform developments can lift volume modestly without triggering extended threads or political back-and-forth. The closely contested pricing around the 45% mark reflects uncertainty over any last-minute news spikes or quieter personal engagement days, with higher brackets priced far lower due to the absence of confirmed high-intensity events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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