Recent polls show President Trump's job approval hovering near 37-39% amid a stalemated conflict with Iran, elevated gas prices, and persistent voter concerns over inflation and living costs heading into the 2026 midterms. These pressures have contributed to a new second-term low in some surveys, creating downside risk for the week's movement. Offsetting factors include the potential for short-term news cycles, partisan base stability, or modest rebounds typical in weekly tracking data after extended declines. The near-even odds reflect this balance between entrenched negative fundamentals and the inherent volatility of approval measures over brief periods, where incremental shifts in economic sentiment or foreign policy developments could tip the outcome either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUp
52% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
Up
52% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 14, 2026, than on August 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 7, 2026, than on August 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls show President Trump's job approval hovering near 37-39% amid a stalemated conflict with Iran, elevated gas prices, and persistent voter concerns over inflation and living costs heading into the 2026 midterms. These pressures have contributed to a new second-term low in some surveys, creating downside risk for the week's movement. Offsetting factors include the potential for short-term news cycles, partisan base stability, or modest rebounds typical in weekly tracking data after extended declines. The near-even odds reflect this balance between entrenched negative fundamentals and the inherent volatility of approval measures over brief periods, where incremental shifts in economic sentiment or foreign policy developments could tip the outcome either direction.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 14, 2026, than on August 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 7, 2026, than on August 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 7, 2026, than on August 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 14, 2026, than on August 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 7, 2026, than on August 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls show President Trump's job approval hovering near 37-39% amid a stalemated conflict with Iran, elevated gas prices, and persistent voter concerns over inflation and living costs heading into the 2026 midterms. These pressures have contributed to a new second-term low in some surveys, creating downside risk for the week's movement. Offsetting factors include the potential for short-term news cycles, partisan base stability, or modest rebounds typical in weekly tracking data after extended declines. The near-even odds reflect this balance between entrenched negative fundamentals and the inherent volatility of approval measures over brief periods, where incremental shifts in economic sentiment or foreign policy developments could tip the outcome either direction.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 14, 2026, than on August 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 7, 2026, than on August 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 7, 2026, than on August 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls show President Trump's job approval hovering near 37-39% amid a stalemated conflict with Iran, elevated gas prices, and persistent voter concerns over inflation and living costs heading into the 2026 midterms. These pressures have contributed to a new second-term low in some surveys, creating downside risk for the week's movement. Offsetting factors include the potential for short-term news cycles, partisan base stability, or modest rebounds typical in weekly tracking data after extended declines. The near-even odds reflect this balance between entrenched negative fundamentals and the inherent volatility of approval measures over brief periods, where incremental shifts in economic sentiment or foreign policy developments could tip the outcome either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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