President Trump's renewed August 2026 effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook—via a White House letter citing unproven mortgage fraud allegations and giving her until late August to respond—remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on her departure timeline. The Supreme Court's 5-4 June ruling upheld her position pending litigation, affirming "for cause" removal protections under the Federal Reserve Act while leaving room for future challenges. This legal shield, combined with institutional emphasis on central bank independence, has kept implied probabilities of near-term exit low despite political pressure. Key upcoming catalysts include Cook's response deadline, potential further court proceedings, and any FOMC developments that could influence administration strategy. Market-implied odds price in substantial barriers to swift removal absent new evidence or rulings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
32%
October 31
48%
November 30
48%
December 31
49%
$0.00 Vol.
September 30
$0 Vol.
32%
October 31
$0 Vol.
48%
November 30
$0 Vol.
48%
December 31
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.President Trump's renewed August 2026 effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook—via a White House letter citing unproven mortgage fraud allegations and giving her until late August to respond—remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on her departure timeline. The Supreme Court's 5-4 June ruling upheld her position pending litigation, affirming "for cause" removal protections under the Federal Reserve Act while leaving room for future challenges. This legal shield, combined with institutional emphasis on central bank independence, has kept implied probabilities of near-term exit low despite political pressure. Key upcoming catalysts include Cook's response deadline, potential further court proceedings, and any FOMC developments that could influence administration strategy. Market-implied odds price in substantial barriers to swift removal absent new evidence or rulings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.President Trump's renewed August 2026 effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook—via a White House letter citing unproven mortgage fraud allegations and giving her until late August to respond—remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on her departure timeline. The Supreme Court's 5-4 June ruling upheld her position pending litigation, affirming "for cause" removal protections under the Federal Reserve Act while leaving room for future challenges. This legal shield, combined with institutional emphasis on central bank independence, has kept implied probabilities of near-term exit low despite political pressure. Key upcoming catalysts include Cook's response deadline, potential further court proceedings, and any FOMC developments that could influence administration strategy. Market-implied odds price in substantial barriers to swift removal absent new evidence or rulings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's renewed August 2026 effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook—via a White House letter citing unproven mortgage fraud allegations and giving her until late August to respond—remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on her departure timeline. The Supreme Court's 5-4 June ruling upheld her position pending litigation, affirming "for cause" removal protections under the Federal Reserve Act while leaving room for future challenges. This legal shield, combined with institutional emphasis on central bank independence, has kept implied probabilities of near-term exit low despite political pressure. Key upcoming catalysts include Cook's response deadline, potential further court proceedings, and any FOMC developments that could influence administration strategy. Market-implied odds price in substantial barriers to swift removal absent new evidence or rulings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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