The @khamenei_ir account, which issues statements from the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, maintains a pattern of minimal activity with only sporadic posts on commemorative or resistance-related themes. This established low-frequency baseline, unchanged by recent Iranian leadership transitions or regional developments, drives the 53.5% probability on fewer than five posts and 22% on five to nine during the August 14–21 window. No scheduled events or escalations appear likely to prompt increased output, consistent with the account’s history of limited engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026?
<5 54%
5-9 22%
15-19 12.8%
10-14 13%
<5
54%
5-9
22%
10-14
13%
15-19
13%
20-24
10%
25-29
13%
30-34
12%
35-39
2%
40-44
1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
1%
<5 54%
5-9 22%
15-19 12.8%
10-14 13%
<5
54%
5-9
22%
10-14
13%
15-19
13%
20-24
10%
25-29
13%
30-34
12%
35-39
2%
40-44
1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...The @khamenei_ir account, which issues statements from the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, maintains a pattern of minimal activity with only sporadic posts on commemorative or resistance-related themes. This established low-frequency baseline, unchanged by recent Iranian leadership transitions or regional developments, drives the 53.5% probability on fewer than five posts and 22% on five to nine during the August 14–21 window. No scheduled events or escalations appear likely to prompt increased output, consistent with the account’s history of limited engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
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