Netflix's recent Q2 2026 earnings, with revenue of $12.56 billion (13% YoY growth) slightly missing estimates and weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance of $12.86 billion, triggered an immediate 8%+ share-price decline to current levels near $72. This sets the stage for the week-of-Aug. 3 close, where market-implied odds cluster tightly around the $50–$120 bins at roughly 49% each, reflecting ongoing uncertainty over membership trends, ad revenue momentum, and operating margins near 33%. The lone low-probability outcome below $50 underscores trader consensus that further sharp downside is unlikely absent new negative catalysts. With no major data releases or events scheduled before resolution, near-term volatility in broader tech indices and any incremental subscriber metrics will likely determine which adjacent range captures the highest implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$30 95%
$30-$40 95%
$110-$120 95%
>$120 95%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
<$30
95%
$30-$40
95%
$40-$50
2%
$50-$60
48%
$60-$70
49%
$70-$80
49%
$80-$90
49%
$90-$100
49%
$100-$110
49%
$110-$120
95%
>$120
95%
<$30 95%
$30-$40 95%
$110-$120 95%
>$120 95%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
<$30
$51 Vol.
95%
$30-$40
$51 Vol.
95%
$40-$50
$7 Vol.
2%
$50-$60
$0 Vol.
48%
$60-$70
$0 Vol.
49%
$70-$80
$0 Vol.
49%
$80-$90
$0 Vol.
49%
$90-$100
$0 Vol.
49%
$100-$110
$0 Vol.
49%
$110-$120
$48 Vol.
95%
>$120
$36 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD.Netflix's recent Q2 2026 earnings, with revenue of $12.56 billion (13% YoY growth) slightly missing estimates and weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance of $12.86 billion, triggered an immediate 8%+ share-price decline to current levels near $72. This sets the stage for the week-of-Aug. 3 close, where market-implied odds cluster tightly around the $50–$120 bins at roughly 49% each, reflecting ongoing uncertainty over membership trends, ad revenue momentum, and operating margins near 33%. The lone low-probability outcome below $50 underscores trader consensus that further sharp downside is unlikely absent new negative catalysts. With no major data releases or events scheduled before resolution, near-term volatility in broader tech indices and any incremental subscriber metrics will likely determine which adjacent range captures the highest implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$194End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD.Netflix's recent Q2 2026 earnings, with revenue of $12.56 billion (13% YoY growth) slightly missing estimates and weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance of $12.86 billion, triggered an immediate 8%+ share-price decline to current levels near $72. This sets the stage for the week-of-Aug. 3 close, where market-implied odds cluster tightly around the $50–$120 bins at roughly 49% each, reflecting ongoing uncertainty over membership trends, ad revenue momentum, and operating margins near 33%. The lone low-probability outcome below $50 underscores trader consensus that further sharp downside is unlikely absent new negative catalysts. With no major data releases or events scheduled before resolution, near-term volatility in broader tech indices and any incremental subscriber metrics will likely determine which adjacent range captures the highest implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD.
Volume
$194End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Netflix's recent Q2 2026 earnings, with revenue of $12.56 billion (13% YoY growth) slightly missing estimates and weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance of $12.86 billion, triggered an immediate 8%+ share-price decline to current levels near $72. This sets the stage for the week-of-Aug. 3 close, where market-implied odds cluster tightly around the $50–$120 bins at roughly 49% each, reflecting ongoing uncertainty over membership trends, ad revenue momentum, and operating margins near 33%. The lone low-probability outcome below $50 underscores trader consensus that further sharp downside is unlikely absent new negative catalysts. With no major data releases or events scheduled before resolution, near-term volatility in broader tech indices and any incremental subscriber metrics will likely determine which adjacent range captures the highest implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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