Recent July 2026 polls show the SPD at 28–29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, down sharply from its 39.6% result and 34 seats in 2021, while the AfD holds a steady lead near 36%. This projects the SPD into the low-to-mid 20s seat range under the state's proportional system and 5% threshold, aligning with the market's leading 22–25 outcome. Incumbent Minister-President Manuela Schwesig has gained modestly in personal approval and narrowed the gap by two points since May, yet structural losses for the SPD–Left governing parties persist amid AfD strength and weak showings by the CDU, Greens, and smaller parties. With the September 20 election roughly six weeks away, traders price in continued SPD erosion but limited further downside absent major late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated22-25 54%
26-29 21%
30-33 6%
34+ 5.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<18
7%
18-21
5%
22-25
54%
26-29
21%
30-33
14%
34+
5%
22-25 54%
26-29 21%
30-33 6%
34+ 5.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<18
$821 Vol.
7%
18-21
$441 Vol.
5%
22-25
$4,844 Vol.
54%
26-29
$1,149 Vol.
21%
30-33
$281 Vol.
14%
34+
$599 Vol.
5%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent July 2026 polls show the SPD at 28–29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, down sharply from its 39.6% result and 34 seats in 2021, while the AfD holds a steady lead near 36%. This projects the SPD into the low-to-mid 20s seat range under the state's proportional system and 5% threshold, aligning with the market's leading 22–25 outcome. Incumbent Minister-President Manuela Schwesig has gained modestly in personal approval and narrowed the gap by two points since May, yet structural losses for the SPD–Left governing parties persist amid AfD strength and weak showings by the CDU, Greens, and smaller parties. With the September 20 election roughly six weeks away, traders price in continued SPD erosion but limited further downside absent major late shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Volume
$8,134End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent July 2026 polls show the SPD at 28–29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, down sharply from its 39.6% result and 34 seats in 2021, while the AfD holds a steady lead near 36%. This projects the SPD into the low-to-mid 20s seat range under the state's proportional system and 5% threshold, aligning with the market's leading 22–25 outcome. Incumbent Minister-President Manuela Schwesig has gained modestly in personal approval and narrowed the gap by two points since May, yet structural losses for the SPD–Left governing parties persist amid AfD strength and weak showings by the CDU, Greens, and smaller parties. With the September 20 election roughly six weeks away, traders price in continued SPD erosion but limited further downside absent major late shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$8,134End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 polls show the SPD at 28–29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, down sharply from its 39.6% result and 34 seats in 2021, while the AfD holds a steady lead near 36%. This projects the SPD into the low-to-mid 20s seat range under the state's proportional system and 5% threshold, aligning with the market's leading 22–25 outcome. Incumbent Minister-President Manuela Schwesig has gained modestly in personal approval and narrowed the gap by two points since May, yet structural losses for the SPD–Left governing parties persist amid AfD strength and weak showings by the CDU, Greens, and smaller parties. With the September 20 election roughly six weeks away, traders price in continued SPD erosion but limited further downside absent major late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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